2015年美国畜禽肉数据_60页-6mb

Summary of The 2015 Meat & Poultry FACTS

Core Content

The 2015 Meat & Poultry FACTS is the 44th edition of a comprehensive report on the U.S. livestock and meat industry, produced by Sterling Marketing, Inc. and the North American Meat Institute. It provides detailed data and analysis on various aspects of the industry, including production, prices, trade, and market dynamics, offering a foundational understanding of key trends in the meat and poultry sector.

Main Industry Highlights

Beef Industry

• Herd Building: The beef and pork industries began herd expansion in 2015.
• Prices: Beef prices across the supply chain (except grinding beef and trim) continued to strengthen, hitting new records.
• Producer Margins: Despite a sharp drop in cattle prices after Labor Day, producer margins remained close to the historical top end, supporting continued herd expansion.
• Import Trends: U.S. beef imports were strong in 2015, largely due to Australian herd liquidation caused by the El Nino drought. Australian beef imports rose by 47% from the previous year, with U.S. demand being a major driver.
• Export Challenges: The strong U.S. dollar and weaker Asian economies negatively impacted beef and pork exports. Japan accounted for 26% of U.S. beef exports and 32% of pork exports.
• Trade Agreement: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was signed in October 2015 and expected to be reviewed by the U.S. Congress in early 2016. It would reduce tariffs and remove quotas, increasing market access for U.S. meat products in Japan.
• Capacity Issues: Beef industry faced excess slaughter capacity as cattle numbers tightened. Tyson’s decision to close the Denison, Iowa plant and PM Beef’s closure of the Caldwell Packing plant highlighted capacity concerns.

Pork Industry

• Production: Sharp increases in pork production kept prices significantly lower than the previous year, but producer and packer margins remained positive.
• Capacity Utilization: The industry operated at close to 99% utilization in 2015 due to high hog numbers. This is expected to create a capacity squeeze in 2016.
• New Plant: A joint venture by Seaboard and Triumph Foods announced a new plant in Sioux City, Iowa, expected to be completed in 2017 with a capacity of 3 million hogs per year.
• JBS Acquisition: JBS acquired Cargill's pork assets, increasing its daily slaughter capacity to 89,000 head with plants in Beardstown, Illinois, and Ottumwa, Iowa.

Challenges

• Diseases: The industry faced PED virus and avian influenza. While broiler production was largely unaffected, egg and turkey production were significantly impacted.
• Health Concerns: A WHO report linked processed and red meat consumption to cancer risk, prompting a response from the North American Meat Institute, which emphasized the lack of scientific evidence. The WHO later clarified that red and processed meat could still be part of a healthy diet.

Key Data and Trends

Livestock Numbers

• Cattle and Calves: From 1925 to 2015, the number of cattle and calves on farms decreased from 63,373 thousand to 89,800 thousand.
• Sheep and Lambs: The number of sheep and lambs on farms declined from 38,543 thousand to 5,280 thousand.
• Hogs: Hog numbers increased from 55,570 thousand in 1925 to 67,726 thousand in 2015.

State-Level Data

• Cattle & Calves: States like Texas and California had significant numbers, with Texas increasing from 111,000 to 11,800 thousand in 2015.
• Sheep & Lambs: Texas had the highest number of sheep and lambs, with 7,232 thousand in 2015.
• Hogs: Iowa and Texas were the top hog-producing states, with Iowa at 66,050 thousand and Texas at 4,905 thousand.

Industry Capacity

• Packer Capacity: The pork industry operated at 99% utilization, raising concerns about capacity in 2016.
• Beef Capacity: Excess capacity continued to be a topic, with Tyson closing a plant and PM Beef closing another, affecting market dynamics.

Trade and Economic Indicators

• Imports: U.S. beef imports were up 30% through September 2015, driven by Australian supply and economic factors.
• Exports: Beef exports were down 13% and pork exports down 1% from the previous year, affected by the strong dollar and weaker Asian economies.
• Consumer and Producer Prices: The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data from 2001 to 2014 show trends in pricing for meat and livestock products.
• Per Capita Consumption: Trends in per capita consumption of red meat, poultry, and fish were analyzed from 1966 to 2014.

Key Statistics and Tables

• Livestock Marketings and Prices: Tables provide data on livestock marketings by state, prices received by farmers, and cash receipts from meat animal sales.
• Slaughter and Production: Data on livestock slaughter and meat production from 1925 to 2014 is presented, along with beef quality and yield grading.
• Plant Data: Includes number of federally inspected plants, slaughter capacity, and daily slaughter rates for beef and pork.
• Market Trends: Supermarket chains, restaurant chains, and meat trade statistics are detailed for 2014-2015.

Conclusion

The 2015 edition of Meat & Poultry FACTS highlights the dynamic nature of the U.S. meat and livestock industry, with a focus on herd expansion, price trends, trade impacts, and economic indicators. Despite challenges like diseases and health concerns, the industry remained resilient, supported by positive margins and capacity investments. The report serves as a valuable resource for understanding the industry's complex landscape.