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US Payments, Processors & IT Services Equity Research Summary
Date: May 27, 2025

Key Recommendations & Price Targets

1. Fiserv (FIS)

   • Hold - $165 PT.
   • Clover growth concerns raised due to normalized GPV growth and muted visibility. Valuation challenges persist despite durable EPS growth expectations.

2. Block (XYZ)

   • Buy - $70 PT.
   • Cash App reacceleration provides confidence for 2Q performance. Square momentum (go-to-market improvements, Borrow lending) is a key driver. Seller GPV growth steady.

3. Corpay (CPAY)

   • Buy - $375 PT.
   • Corporate payments mix shift (Fleet/Gift acceleration) sets up high-single-digit growth. Cross-border risks managed with <20% tariff exposure.

4. Others (via PT/Recommendations):

   • Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Coinbase (COIN), etc.
     Holdings range from Hold (PYPL, GPN) to Buy (ACIW, AMAZING).

Key Themes & Risks

• Clover GPV Normalization (FIS): Reduced visibility on US growth, valuation secondary to KPI focus.
• Cash App Momentum (Block): April reacceleration validates seller story post-holiday.
• Corporate Payments Expansion (CPAY): M&A (AVDX, Alpha Group) drives revenue mix improvement.
• Regulatory & Macroeconomic Headwinds (MA, PYPL, CPAY): Legal risks (DOJ, merchant litigation), macro uncertainty impacting guidance.
• Growth Deceleration (GPN, WEX): Cross-border and mobility segments face cyclicality, limiting upside.
• Crypto Volatility (COIN): Price sensitivity remains a key risk despite strong fundamentals.

Outlook

The report highlights selective opportunities in corporate payments (CPAY, MA, Block) and software-led growth firms. Valuations reflect near-term risks, but long-term secular trends (e.g., digital inclusion, embedded payments) support re-rating in high-conviction names.