2025-05-26-Jefferies-美国市场反馈_8页_130kb

Equity Research: Japan Retailers Summary

Date: May 26, 2025
Analyst: Shunsuke Kuriyama

Key Covered Companies & Ratings:

1. Sanrio (8136 JP, Buy):

   • Elevated investor interest following FY results, focusing on Hello Kitty's 50th anniversary impact, LTP (DD CAGR, ¥5tr market cap target, 3x GMV, 10% market share in the US).
   • Key risks: Geopolitical conflicts, IP popularity decline, cost inflation, and global recession.
   • Valuation: PT of ¥8,000 (41.4x PER on FY3/26E).

2. Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP, Buy):

   • Focus on margin expansion, monthly LFL growth, and new management.
   • Catalysts: Success in H&B, China product launch, and upside from OPM.
   • Risks: Geopolitical conflicts, cost inflation, inventory issues, and global recession.
   • Valuation: SOTP-based price target of ¥5,500 (29.8x 12M-forward PER).

3. Seven & i (3382 JP, Hold):

   • Key topics: Couche-Tard deal, stock buybacks, governance issues (board resignations), and fundamental weaknesses.
   • Risks: Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, cost inflation, and global retail consumption slowdown.
   • Valuation: PT of ¥2,000 (8x EV/EBITDA on FY26E).

4. Round One (4680 JP, Buy):

   • Positive on IP derivatives and US business; earnings volatility persists due to monthlies.
   • Upside: Success of catcher machines and new content.
   • Risks: Natural disasters, overseas losses, and unpassed service price hikes.
   • Valuation: PT of ¥1,500 (21x FY3/26E PER).

Cross-Company Themes:

• China Growth/Market Shifts: Key concern for Sanrio, Ryohin Keikaku, and others regarding one-off effects and market saturation.
• Global Risks: Geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns (especially China/US) pose widespread threats.
• Analyst Conflicts: Analyst holds long positions in Ryohin Keikaku, highlighting potential bias.

Key Risks:

• Geopolitical: Supply chain issues, conflicts affecting operations.
• Economic: Inflation, recession, currency fluctuations.
• Business-Specific: IP obsolescence, regulatory scrutiny, and operational inefficiencies.

Valuation Approach:

• Based on SOTP, EV/EBITDA, P/E, DCF, and growth projections.
• Analyst conviction and stock selection criteria include momentum, fundamental strength, and rating durability.

Disclaimer: Investment risks, regulatory disclosures, and full analyst certifications apply as per the report.