2025-06-10-花旗集团-e投睿集团（ETOR）_eToro集团（ETOR.O）_根据第一季度业绩和第二季度趋势更新模型_12页_454kb

报告摘要

Citi updated its model for eToro based on Q1 2025 results, with net contributions of $217 million, up 8% year-over-year, driven by equities, commodities, and currency revenue (+32%) but offset by weaker crypto (-25%).
Revised 2Q25 EPS estimate to $0.53 (down from $0.72) due to reduced trading activity expectations and higher average yields, partially affected by updated share count.
Target price for eToro is $72, up from previous $66.96, valuing the company at 28x-24x 2026-2027 EPS, viewed as reasonable given growth opportunities and risks.

Balanced risk/reward at current levels; positives include regional diversity, brand strength, crypto leverage, and expansion potential.
Challenges noted: Intense competition in traditional retail and crypto, result volatility from crypto and market-making elements, high marketing spend, and sustainability of current return on capital employed (ROCA). Overall, risk vs. reward is considered balanced.

EPS estimates for 2025-2027 lowered to $2.31, $2.61, $3.06 from $2.45, $2.59, $3.06.
Key metrics include funded accounts growing steadily and ROE positively impacted by 2025; ROA and adjusted EBITDA margins s
u 20 .
Valuation based on P/E, with upside potential from higher trading volumes or volatility, or merger and acquisition activity.

Short-term volatility expected from crypto segments; factors supporting the PT include expansion opportunities and healthy retail segment outlook.
Downside risks include lower volumes, regulatory changes affecting crypto, and increased competition in key regions.
Investment strategy suggests monitoring catalysts like higher transaction volumes or positive regulatory developments.

This summary is based on Citi Research's updated model, reflecting both opportunities and challenges for eToro.

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