2025-06-04-Bernstein-马自达汽车公司（7261）_马自达_挥之不去的不确定性阴影_17页_2mb

Mazda Price Target Change

Date: 4 June 2025
Analyst: Masahiro Akita, Japan Autos & Auto Parts
Rating: Underperform
Price Target: ¥550, down from ¥650

Key Changes

1. Downgrade to Underperform:
   Reflects concerns over unpriced-in US tariff impacts and structural challenges.

2. Target Price Reduction:
   Lowered to ¥550 based on revised forecasts for FY3/27.

   • Prior price: ¥650.
   • Implied P/E: 9.7×, still considered relatively high.

Headline Risks

• Lingering uncertainty around US import tariffs and their full impact.
• No FY3/26 guidance provided by management.
• Flattish sales growth outlook due to US tariff-related price hikes.
• Market conditions and competition may hinder Phase 2 of the 5-year plan (FY3/26–FY3/28).

Financial Forecast Changes

Other Key Updates

• FY3/25 Results:
  • Sales: JPY 5,019 bn, in-line.
  • Net profit: JPY 114 bn, missed by 9%.
  • Tariff-related costs (JPY 24 bn) unlikely to affect FY3/26.
• Cost Reduction:
  • ¥100 bn reductions planned for variable/fixed costs by 2030.
  • Effects mostly from FY3/27 onwards.

Analyst Comments

• EV Strategy: Cautious, amid concerns over economic rationality of independent EV development.
• Market Exposure: High dependency on US market (25% of sales), highly exposed to tariffs.
• Margin Pressure: Resulting from forex volatility, environmental regulations, and potential margin compression.