2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Labor_Content_of_Exports_in_South_Africa_and_Botswana___A_Preliminary_Exploration_25页_2mb

Summary of "The Labor Content of Exports in South Africa and Botswana – a preliminary exploration"

Core Content

This document explores the labor content of exports in South Africa and Botswana using the newly developed World Bank dataset on the labor content of exports (LACEX). It analyzes the direct and indirect labor value added in exports and how it relates to the broader economy and employment structure.

Main Points

South Africa

• Labor Value Added in Exports: The labor value added (LVA) in South Africa's exports has been increasing since 2001, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.68% for direct LVA and 7.89% for total LVA.
• Share of Labor in Exports: The share of labor in gross exports has declined, from 41% in 2001 to 33% in 2011, which is lower than China and Brazil, but similar to India.
• Employment Impact: The number of jobs associated with exports has decreased from just above 3 million in 2004 to just below 3 million in 2011. The share of exports-related jobs in total employment dropped from over 1 in 4 to just above 1 in 5.
• Sectoral Analysis:
  • Minerals, Metals, Machinery, and Ferrous Metals are the main contributors to LVA in exports.
  • Wearing Apparel: South Africa's LVA increased slightly, with a rise in indirect content and a decline in direct content. It ranked second in labor content after Brazil and China.
  • Motor Vehicles: LVA dropped significantly, from just below $30 in 2001 to a much lower level in 2011, driven by a sharp decline in direct content.
  • Other Food: LVA declined slightly and lagged behind Brazil, China, and India.
  • Electronic Equipment: LVA dropped substantially, but it remained relatively high compared to other countries.
• Skilled vs. Unskilled Labor:
  • Unskilled labor dominates most sectors, but in public administration, defense, health, education, and other private services, the split is more even.
  • The share of skilled labor in exports increased in wearing apparel but declined in electronic equipment.

Botswana

• Labor Value Added in Exports: Total LVA in exports increased in the late 1990s but has grown very little since 2001, hovering around $1.5 billion.
• Share of Labor in Exports: The share of labor in gross exports peaked at 43% in 2001 but dropped to 23% in 2011, the lowest among comparator countries.
• Employment Impact: The number of jobs associated with exports has declined, and the share of exports-related jobs in total employment is relatively low.
• Sectoral Analysis:
  • Minerals and Metals are the largest contributors to LVA in exports, but with very weak backward linkages.
  • Manufacturing has a higher domestic labor content in exports than most other countries, but its overall impact is limited due to smaller direct labor content.
  • Wearing Apparel and Motor Vehicles show a decline in LVA, with the latter having minimal indirect content.
• Skilled vs. Unskilled Labor:
  • Unskilled labor dominates in all sectors, but the share of skilled labor in other private services is higher than in other sectors.
  • Botswana has a lower skilled share in exports compared to most comparator countries.

Key Information

• The LACEX dataset is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) input-output data and is used to compute the direct and indirect value of employee compensation in exports.
• The methodology involves using the Leontief inverse matrix and a matrix of compensation of employees shares to derive the labor content of exports.
• The analysis highlights the importance of backward and forward linkages in determining the labor intensity of exports.
• South Africa and Botswana have relatively low labor content in exports compared to other middle-income countries, with South Africa's low labor content partly attributed to its capital-intensive mining sector.
• Botswana's weak backward linkages suggest limited interconnectedness between its export sectors and the rest of the economy.

Conclusion

The labor content of exports in both South Africa and Botswana has shown mixed trends, with South Africa having a slightly higher share of labor in exports than Botswana. However, both countries face challenges in maintaining high labor content due to structural and technological shifts in their export sectors. The data underscores the need for policies that enhance domestic linkages and promote more labor-intensive industries to support shared prosperity.