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Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand Summary

Core Content

This document, Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand, is a joint publication by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) of the Thai Ministry of Energy. It provides an in-depth analysis of Thailand's renewable energy readiness and outlines a roadmap for increasing the share of renewables in the country's energy mix.

Main Viewpoints

• Energy Security and Sustainability: Thailand's energy security is a top priority due to its reliance on imported energy. With domestic oil and gas reserves expected to be depleted within a decade, the country needs to diversify its energy sources and enhance sustainability.
• Renewable Energy Targets: The Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015) aims to increase the share of renewable energy in Thailand's total final energy consumption to 30% by 2036. The study suggests that this target could be exceeded, reaching up to 37%.
• IRENA's Role: IRENA has played a significant role in supporting Thailand's transition to renewable energy through collaboration with the Ministry of Energy and using its methodologies: Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) and REmap.
• Key Sectors: The report evaluates three main sub-sectors: power generation, thermal use, and bioenergy. It highlights the importance of integrating these sectors to meet the 30% target and beyond.
• Technology Potential: Solar PV and onshore wind are identified as having the highest potential for growth. Solar PV capacity is projected to increase from 6 GW to nearly 17 GW, while onshore wind is expected to double from 3 GW to 6 GW.
• Economic and Environmental Benefits: The study estimates that the adoption of renewable energy could save USD 1.2 billion annually before considering health and environmental benefits. It also highlights the need for investment in the energy system to achieve these gains.

Key Information

1.1 Country Profile

• Thailand is located in Southeast Asia, covering 513,000 km² and divided into 76 provinces (excluding Bangkok).
• It has a population of around 68 million, with a significant portion in rural areas.
• The industrial and commercial sectors have become major contributors to GDP, while the agricultural sector's role has diminished.

1.2 Regional Context

• Thailand is a founding member of ASEAN and has been part of the regional energy development.
• ASEAN's energy demand is projected to increase by 110–130% by 2040, driven by economic growth.
• Despite improved energy efficiency, energy demand is expected to rise significantly over the next two decades.

1.3 Methodologies

• Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA): Based on stakeholder consultations, this assessment evaluates the readiness of the country to transition to renewable energy.
• REmap Analysis: IRENA's roadmap to double renewable energy in the energy mix. It outlines the potential for renewable energy growth across different sectors.

2.1 Overall Energy System

• Thailand's energy system is dominated by fossil fuels, with coal, oil, and natural gas accounting for the majority of primary energy supply.
• The country's energy demand is expected to rise significantly, with a projected 78% increase by 2036.
• The electricity sector is the fastest-growing segment, driven by urbanisation and industrial expansion.

2.2 Key Energy Legislation and Institutions

• Thailand has a range of energy-related laws and policies, including the National Energy Policy (2008) and the Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB), which spans 2015–2036.
• The Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) is a key institution in the energy sector, responsible for promoting renewable energy development.

2.3 Energy Policy and Plan

• The National Energy Policy (2008) aims to reduce fossil fuel dependence and increase renewable energy use.
• The Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB) is a comprehensive plan that includes the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015) and outlines the country's long-term energy strategy.

3.1 Overview of Renewable Energy Development

• Thailand has made progress in renewable energy development, particularly in the power generation and bioenergy sectors.
• The focus is on increasing the share of renewables in final energy consumption, with an emphasis on solar, wind, and bioenergy.

3.2 Support Programmes

• Various support programmes have been implemented to promote renewable energy, including feed-in tariffs (FIT), feed-in premiums (FIP), and renewable electricity certificates (REC).
• These programmes aim to attract private sector investment and encourage the development of renewable energy projects.

3.3 AEDP 2015: Observations and Discussions

• The AEDP 2015 sets a clear path for increasing renewable energy in the country, but it also highlights the challenges associated with implementation.
• The study suggests that a more diversified renewable portfolio is needed to achieve the target and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

4.1 Reference Case

• In the reference case, Thailand's energy demand is expected to grow by 78% by 2036, with GDP increasing by 126%.
• The study outlines the expected growth in energy production and consumption, with a focus on the role of renewables.

4.2 REmap Results

• The REmap analysis identifies the potential for increasing renewable energy share to 37% by 2036.
• It highlights the importance of solar PV and onshore wind in achieving this target.
• The study also discusses the need for policy and legal frameworks to support the development of renewable energy.

4.3 Costs and Benefits

• The cost of renewable energy is expected to decrease over time, making it more competitive with fossil fuels.
• The benefits of renewable energy include reduced air pollution, lower CO₂ emissions, and significant cost savings.
• Investment needs are outlined, with an emphasis on infrastructure development and policy support.

5.1 Analytical Highlights

• The study identifies key challenges in the renewable energy transition, including grid integration, biomass supply chain management, and policy support.
• It highlights the importance of developing a comprehensive renewable energy strategy that includes all three sub-sectors.

5.2 Strategic Recommendations

• Thailand should develop a diverse renewable energy portfolio to ensure grid stability and reduce system costs.
• A fair and predictable market environment for biomass is needed to support long-term investment and supply chain development.
• The country should establish a long-term strategic plan for the transport sector, including the development of electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure.

5.3 Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Power Grid Planning: Thailand needs to invest in grid infrastructure to support the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources.
• Biomass Supply Chains: A reliable and affordable biomass supply chain is essential to support the use of bioenergy in industrial and commercial sectors.
• Electric Mobility: Thailand should develop a long-term plan for electric mobility, including EVs and charging infrastructure.
• Policy and Legal Frameworks: Clear policies and legal frameworks are needed to support the development of renewable energy, particularly in the biomass and thermal sectors.

Conclusion

This document outlines a comprehensive roadmap for Thailand's transition to renewable energy, highlighting the potential for growth in solar, wind, and bioenergy. It provides strategic recommendations for policy, legal, and market frameworks to support this transition and ensure long-term sustainability and energy security. The collaboration between IRENA and the Thai Ministry of Energy is a key factor in the development of this report, which serves as a valuable guide for the future of renewable energy in Thailand.