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Renewable Energy Prospects: United Arab Emirates (REmap 2030)

Core Content

The REmap 2030 report, commissioned by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and produced by the Masdar Institute in collaboration with IRENA, provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential for renewable energy deployment in the UAE by 2030. It outlines the economic and policy pathways necessary to increase the share of renewables in the national energy mix and highlights the country's role as a global leader in clean energy.

Main Points

1. Renewable Energy in the UAE is Now Economically Attractive

• Renewable energy in the UAE is now cost-competitive, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), which have seen dramatic cost reductions.
• A 10% share of renewable energy in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2030 could result in annual savings of USD 1.9 billion, and with health and environmental benefits, savings could reach USD 1–3.7 billion.
• A 25% share in power generation could be cheaper than the current targets, indicating a strong financial case for expanding renewables.

2. Drivers of Renewable Energy Growth

• Rising natural gas prices (now USD 9–18/MBtu) and falling renewable energy costs (e.g., solar PV costs dropped 75% since 2008) are the primary drivers.
• The Dubai 100 MW solar PV bid in 2014 set a world-record low cost of USD 5.98 cents per kWh, highlighting the competitiveness of renewables in the Gulf region.
• Solar energy is the most critical resource for the UAE, expected to account for over 90% of renewable energy use in the REmap 2030 scenario.

3. Sector-Specific Renewable Energy Shares

• Buildings sector: 29% renewable share
• Power sector: 25% renewable share
• Industry sector: 5.5% renewable share
• Transport sector: 1.1% renewable share

The differences in renewable shares are due to deployment costs, technology maturity, and subsidies on natural gas and gasoline.

4. REmap 2030 Methodology

• The report uses a Reference Case based on current policies and projects, projecting 0.9% renewable energy share in TFEC by 2030.
• It evaluates the economic attractiveness of various technologies to achieve a 10% renewable share in TFEC by 2030.
• The methodology compares renewable energy with fossil fuels, natural gas, oil, and nuclear power, using both local and international cost data.

5. Opportunities and Barriers

• Opportunities:

  • Solar PV and wind are already cost-competitive with natural gas.
  • The UAE has a strong foundation for renewable energy development, including the Shams 1 CSP plant and the Masdar Institute.
  • The federal energy policy taskforce is a key step toward coordinating policies across the seven emirates.
  • Solar water heating and waste-to-energy are viable options with existing cost benefits.

• Barriers:

  • Awareness of comparative energy costs is limited among policymakers and industry stakeholders.
  • Baseload power concerns remain due to the intermittent nature of solar and wind.
  • Subsidies for natural gas in industry and gasoline in transport artificially lower the cost of fossil fuels, making renewables less attractive.
  • Desalination impacts are a concern, as it is energy-intensive and often relies on fossil fuels.

6. Policy Recommendations

• Empower government agencies to take a holistic view of energy costs and regulate accordingly.
• Mandate cost comparisons between renewable and fossil fuel technologies, and establish a loading order for energy sources.
• Implement a deployment programme with a clear timeline for renewable energy expansion.
• Introduce a tipping fee to support waste-to-energy initiatives.
• Develop a feed-in-tariff and distributed generation framework to incentivize renewable energy adoption.
• Revise tariff systems for waste disposal and metering of decentralized renewables.
• Federalise emirate-level regulations for solar water heating and metering.

7. Economic and Environmental Benefits

• Avoiding fossil fuel use could reduce CO₂ emissions by 29 Mt/year.
• Health and environmental benefits are estimated to reach USD 1–3.7 billion annually by 2030.
• The UAE's shift to renewables supports economic diversification, sustainability, and job creation.

8. Energy Cost Dynamics

• Natural gas prices have risen significantly, making renewables more attractive.
• Solar PV is now cheaper than LNG and can be competitive at USD 4.5–8/MBtu.
• Concentrated solar power (CSP) with thermal storage is more expensive than conventional sources, but can be offset by savings from other renewables.

9. REmap 2030 as a Global Initiative

• The report is part of a global REmap 2030 project, involving over 90 national experts from nearly 60 countries.
• It provides customised data and expert insights to support international cooperation and energy planning.
• The UAE's participation in IRENA and its pioneering role in clean energy development are highlighted.

Key Information

• Report Title: Renewable Energy Prospects: United Arab Emirates
• Published: March 2015
• Authors: Ayu Abdullah, Sgouris Sgouridis, Steve Griffiths, Dolf Gielen, Deger Saygin, Nicholas Wagner
• Sponsors: UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Directorate of Energy and Climate Change
• Key Institutions:
  • Masdar Institute: A graduate-level university focused on sustainability and clean energy.
  • IRENA: The International Renewable Energy Agency, which supports global renewable energy transitions.
• Key Figures:
  • Solar PV capacity: Could increase from 10 MW in 2009 to over 60 GW by 2032.
  • Dubai 100 MW solar PV bid: Set a world-record low cost of USD 5.98 cents per kWh.
  • Renewable energy savings: USD 1.9 billion annually by 2030.
  • CO₂ emission reductions: 29 Mt/year.
  • Renewable energy share in power generation: Could reach 25% by 2030.

Conclusion

The UAE has made significant strides in renewable energy adoption, and the REmap 2030 analysis confirms that it is now economically viable to expand its renewable share to 10% in TFEC and 25% in power generation. The report underscores the need for policy reform, stakeholder awareness, and coordinated action to fully realize the potential of renewable energy in the country. It also highlights the UAE's leadership in the global clean energy transition and its role in IRENA and SE4ALL initiatives.