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REmap: Renewable Energy Prospects for Indonesia

Core Content Overview

This report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2017, provides an in-depth analysis of Indonesia's renewable energy prospects and outlines a roadmap for achieving a sustainable energy future. It highlights the country's significant potential for renewable energy development, the current energy landscape, policy frameworks, and the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewables.

Main Sources of Information and Assumptions

• Data Sources: Energy consumption statistics, policy documents, and expert consultations.
• Assumptions: Based on current trends, technological capabilities, and economic models, including a 10% discount rate for government perspective and 12% for market perspective.
• Focus Areas: Power generation, transport, industry, and buildings.

Current Situation and Recent Trends

Energy Consumption Growth

• Indonesia is one of the fastest-growing energy consumers globally.
• Between 2000 and 2014, energy consumption increased by nearly 65%.
• Projected to grow by 80% by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.

Energy Mix

• In 2000, coal accounted for about 10% of energy supply.
• By 2014, coal made up almost one-third of the energy supply.
• In the Reference Case, coal use is expected to more than double by 2030, leading to increased emissions and pollution.

Sectoral Energy Use

• Buildings: The largest consumer of energy, with over 10% of the population still lacking access to electricity.
• Transport: Rapid growth in vehicle numbers, with over 1 million motor vehicles and 7.5 million motorcycles/scooters added annually.
• Industry: Expanding energy use, particularly in sectors like cement, aluminium, paper, and ceramics.

Renewable Energy Potential and Cost

Power Generation

• Renewable energy share in power generation is expected to increase from 6% in 2014 to 29% by 2030 in the Reference Case.
• With REmap Options, the share could rise to 38% by 2030.
• Solar PV has the highest potential, with REmap projecting 47 GW of installed capacity by 2030, compared to 9 GW in the Reference Case.

Bioenergy

• Bioenergy remains a major part of renewable energy use, particularly for cooking in rural areas.
• In the Reference Case, 24.5 million households rely on fuelwood for cooking.
• With REmap, this number is expected to drop to 8 million by 2030.
• Bioenergy could also be used for process heat in industry, with REmap identifying 216 PJ/year of additional potential.

Other Renewables

• Hydropower, geothermal, and wind power also have significant potential, though their growth is more modest compared to solar and bioenergy.
• Solar thermal and cooling applications are projected to meet 30% and 5% of energy demand in buildings, respectively.

REmap Options for Indonesia

Technologies

• Solar PV: High potential with 47 GW of capacity by 2030.
• Bioenergy: Major role in transport and industry, especially through liquid biofuels (B30 and E20) and solid biomass.
• Hydropower and Geothermal: Continued growth, with geothermal being a key resource.
• Wind and Ocean: Smaller but growing shares in the energy mix.

Investment Needs

• Annual investment required for renewable energy expansion is estimated at USD 16 billion between 2015 and 2030.
• The government perspective estimates annual savings of USD 1.7 billion by 2030.
• Market perspective estimates additional costs of USD 1.1 billion per year, emphasizing the need to remove energy subsidies and lower capital costs.

Benefits

• Significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with REmap reducing CO₂ emissions by 150 million tonnes annually.
• Enhanced energy security by reducing reliance on imported petroleum products.
• Improved air quality and public health, especially in rural areas where traditional bioenergy is still prevalent.

Barriers and Opportunities

Power Sector

• Barriers: High reliance on fossil fuels, limited grid infrastructure, and policy inconsistencies.
• Opportunities: Abundant geothermal and hydropower resources, increasing solar and wind potential.

End-Use Sectors

• Buildings: High potential for solar thermal and cooling.
• Transport: Strong growth in electric mobility and liquid biofuel blending.
• Industry: Opportunities for bioenergy and solar thermal for process heat.

Bioenergy

• Need for sustainable supply chains to avoid negative environmental impacts.
• Importance of implementing efficient policies and regulations to support bioenergy development.

Suggestions for Accelerated Renewable Energy Uptake

• Implement stronger renewable energy targets and policies.
• Increase investment in renewable energy infrastructure and technology.
• Remove energy subsidies to make renewables more competitive.
• Improve energy efficiency across all sectors.
• Develop a sustainable bioenergy supply chain and promote modern bioenergy technologies.
• Enhance grid connectivity and storage capabilities to support variable renewable energy (VRE).
• Promote electric mobility and renewable fuel blending mandates.

Conclusion

IRENA's REmap analysis shows that Indonesia can achieve its 2050 renewable energy target as early as 2030 with the right policies and investments. The report emphasizes the economic and environmental benefits of a rapid transition to renewables, including significant cost savings, reduced emissions, and improved energy security. It also highlights the importance of addressing barriers in the power and end-use sectors and developing a sustainable bioenergy supply chain to fully realize the potential of renewable energy in Indonesia.