泰国可再生能源展望（英文版）_102页_7mb

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK: THAILAND

Core Content Overview

This document presents the Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand, which is based on the Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) and REmap analysis. It evaluates Thailand's renewable energy potential and outlines strategies for achieving its target of 30% renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2036, as set out in the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015). The analysis also explores the possibility of exceeding this target, reaching up to 37% by 2036, with significant cost savings and environmental benefits.

Main Viewpoints and Key Information

1. Thailand's Energy Context

• Thailand is a country in Southeast Asia with a population of 68 million, covering 513,000 square kilometers divided into 76 provinces.
• More than half of Thailand's energy supply is imported, and this proportion is expected to rise as domestic oil and gas reserves are depleted in less than a decade.
• Energy demand is projected to increase by 78% by 2036, driven by population growth and economic expansion.
• GDP is expected to grow by 126% by 2036, highlighting the importance of energy security and affordability.

2. Renewable Energy Policy and Targets

• The Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB), covering 2015–2036, integrates five key energy plans: power, oil, gas, energy efficiency, and alternative energy.
• The AEDP 2015 sets a target of 30% renewable energy in TFEC by 2036.
• The government has supported renewable energy development through various support programmes, and has partnered with IRENA to conduct the RRA and REmap analysis.

3. Renewable Energy Development in Thailand

• Renewable electricity generation includes hydro, solar PV, wind, and biomass.
• Renewable thermal energy (heat) is crucial for industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.
• Bioenergy is important for transport fuels and heating, and modern technologies like biogas digesters and efficient cookstoves are recommended to replace traditional methods.

4. REmap Analysis and Outcomes

• The REmap analysis identifies solar PV and onshore wind as the two largest sources of additional renewable potential, with solar PV increasing from 6 GW to nearly 17 GW and wind from 3 GW to 6 GW by 2036.
• Under the REmap scenario, Thailand could achieve 37% renewable share in TFEC by 2036, which would save around USD 8 billion annually when considering environmental and health-related costs of fossil fuels.
• The power sector is expected to see a significant increase in renewable share, supported by smart grid technologies and demand-side management.
• Biomass is projected to contribute the majority of the thermal energy increment, with a focus on supply chain development to ensure reliable and affordable feedstocks.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key component of the transport sector, with the number of EVs expected to reach 1.5 million passenger vehicles and over 3.5 million two- and three-wheelers by 2036.

5. Costs and Benefits of Renewable Energy

• The study outlines the costs and savings associated with renewable energy adoption, emphasizing the economic and environmental benefits.
• Investment needs are significant, but the long-term cost savings from reduced fossil fuel dependency and lower emissions are substantial.
• Air pollution and CO₂ impacts are expected to decrease significantly with the increased use of renewables, improving public health and reducing environmental damage.

6. Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Power grid planning must evolve to accommodate the growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE), such as solar and wind.
• Biomass supply chains need to be developed to ensure a stable and reliable source of feedstock, while avoiding competition with food production.
• Incentives for thermal utilisation of renewables are needed to promote their use in heating applications.
• A long-term plan for electric mobility is essential to support the growth of EVs, including infrastructure development and manufacturing capacity.
• A fair market environment for biomass is required to ensure long-term purchase guarantees and stable pricing.
• Regulatory frameworks should be established to ensure equitable benefits distribution between farmers and energy producers.
• New technologies for managing biomass feedstocks and derived products, such as solid biomass pellets, should be encouraged.

Structure and Methodologies

• The study uses two IRENA methodologies:
  • Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA): A country-led and consultative process to identify challenges and solutions for renewable energy deployment.
  • REmap analysis: A roadmap tool to explore alternative pathways to achieving high renewable shares in the energy mix.
• The RRA was conducted in collaboration with the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) and local stakeholders, including government agencies, grid operators, and academia.
• The REmap analysis provides a scenario-based approach to evaluate different pathways for renewable energy development.

Strategic Recommendations

• Develop a diverse renewable energy portfolio to ensure system stability and cost efficiency.
• Improve data collection and statistical systems for renewable thermal energy.
• Establish long-term price guarantees for bioenergy feedstocks.
• Implement incentive schemes for thermal utilisation of renewables.
• Create a strategic development plan for the transport sector, focusing on EVs and infrastructure.
• Invest in charging facilities to support the growth of the EV market.
• Support biomass supply chain development with clear policies and legal frameworks.
• Encourage new technologies for biomass feedstock management.
• Ensure food security remains a priority when developing bioenergy.

Conclusion

This report outlines a comprehensive strategy for Thailand to achieve and potentially exceed its renewable energy targets by 2036. It highlights the importance of policy, investment, and technological innovation in the transition to a more sustainable energy system. The collaboration between the Ministry of Energy and IRENA has been instrumental in providing a realistic and data-driven outlook for the country's renewable energy future.