世界银行-在最需要全球化的时候衡量全球化：一个长期分析（英）-2023.5-33页

Measuring Globalization When It Is Needed Most: A Long-Run Analysis Summary

Policy Research Working Paper 10451 by Sebastian Franco-Bedoya (World Bank, 2023)

Objective

The paper addresses the ambiguity in measuring globalization and its role in economic debates, particularly questioning trend claims of deglobalization.

Methodology

• Uses a structural gravity model from trade theory to measure globalization dynamics.
• Employs input-output tables to cover data from 1965 to 2021.
• Controls for trade agreements and country-specific factors.
• Empirical strategy involves estimating globalization dynamics using exporter-year, country-pair, and importer-year fixed effects with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator.

Key Findings

• Globalization Dynamics: No evidence of a "deglobalization" trend; the world economy remains integrated, with manufacturing leading, followed by agriculture and services.
• Country-Specific Insights:
  • China's globalization "takeoff" began in the mid-1980s, outperforming the world economy despite lower trade-to-GDP ratios.
  • India and Brazil faced initial challenges but integrated significantly after 1990.
  • Spain's integration into the European Union enhanced its trade dynamics, with trade agreements being a key driver.
• Proxy Metrics: Traditional metrics like trade-to-GDP and GVC participation often misrepresent globalization; context-dependent analysis is essential.

Conclusion

Globalization has not reversed; a clear, long-run definition and methodology are needed to accurately capture its dynamics and inform economic policy.