2023-06-08-世界银行-在最需要全球化的时候衡量全球化_一个长期分析（英）_33页_452kb

Summary: Measuring Globalization When It Is Needed the Most: A Long-Run Analysis

Introduction and Motivation
The paper addresses the ongoing debate about globalization's current phase, influenced by events like US-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic. It critiques common proxies like the trade-to-GDP ratio, which can be misleading, and proposes a long-run analysis using a clear definition: globalization as the extension of market forces beyond national borders. This work provides a methodological toolkit to disentangle globalization dynamics across countries and sectors based on rigorous empirical analysis.

Methodology
The study employs a structural gravity model to estimate globalization dynamics from 1965 to 2021, using integrated databases ( e.g., Long-run WIOD, Eora-MRIO, ADB-MRIO) that incorporate both international and domestic trade flows. The model controls for trade agreements and country-specific factors to isolate globalization trends, with the variable "INTER" capturing the average effect of all economic forces driving globalization.

Key Findings on Globalization Dynamics
-Globalization has not entered a deglob "w phase; rather, it has slowed since 2008. -Sectoral analysis shows manufacturing globalization was strong from the 1960s, while agriculture and services accelerated in the later 1970s and 1990s, respectively. -Country-specific dynamics highlight that China's integration since the late 1980s significantly outperformed the global economy, contradicting simplistic "globalization has peaked" narratives from trade-to-GDP ratios. The Spanish case demonstrates a smooth transition from autarky to deep European integration, driven by trade agreements. -Trade agreements play a significant role, but their effects are heterogeneous. While controlling for the average RTA effect shows overall globalization gains, allowing for phased effects reveals nuanced impacts on specific countries.

Conclusions
The paper concludes that globalization is a complex, context-dependent process, with no clear deglobalization trend. It underscores the importance of using defined definitions like the structural gravity model to accurately gauge globalization's impact, providing purpose-built tools for economic policy discussions ranging from slowbalization to deglobalization. This long-run framework aids in understanding current challenges and future dynamics.