深度-Euromonitor-2021年第二季度全球经济预测（英文）-2021.6-31页_6mb

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2021 Summary

Core Content

Euromonitor International's Global Economic Forecasts for Q2 2021 highlight a global economic recovery, with advanced economies leading the way. The report provides detailed forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and other macroeconomic indicators for key economies, including the US, China, India, Japan, the Eurozone, and Russia. It also outlines different scenarios (baseline, optimistic, pessimistic) and their associated probabilities, along with an assessment of the main risks impacting the global economy.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Economic Recovery: The global economy is expected to grow at the fastest pace in over 40 years, with a forecast of 5.8% real GDP growth for 2021 and 4.5% for 2022.
• Advanced Economies: These economies are forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022, significantly above the long-term trend of 1.5%.
• Developing Economies: Growth is expected to be 6.5% in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022, with a modest upgrade from the long-term trend of 4.1%.
• Vaccination and Lockdowns: The pace of vaccination is a key driver of recovery, with advanced economies likely to reach herd immunity by Q3–Q4 2021, while developing economies may lag until mid-2022.
• Consumer and Business Confidence: These are expected to return to historic levels by Q3 2021, supporting economic activity.
• Pandemic Risks: The emergence of more contagious variants and vaccine resistance remains a key downside risk, particularly in countries like India and Brazil.
• Scenario Probabilities: The baseline scenario has a 66% probability, while the pessimistic scenarios are less likely (28% and 6%), and the optimistic scenario is even less likely (6%).

Key Information

Real GDP Growth Forecast (2019–2023)

• Global: 5.8% in 2021, 4.5% in 2022
• Advanced Economies: 5.0% in 2021, 4.0% in 2022
• Developing Economies: 6.5% in 2021, 5.0% in 2022

Key Economies Forecast

United States

• 2021 Growth: 6.7% (up 2.0 percentage points from Q1)
• 2022 Growth: 4.3%
• Inflation: 1.7% in 2021, 2.4% in 2022
• Central Bank Policy Rate: 3.9% in 2021, 4.0% in 2022
• Unemployment: Expected to decrease gradually due to government support and vaccination progress

China

• 2021 Growth: 8.6% (up 0.6 percentage points from Q1)
• 2022 Growth: 5.5%
• Inflation: 5.0% in 2021, 4.7% in 2022
• Central Bank Rate: 4.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022
• Unemployment: Expected to remain stable as the economy recovers from the pandemic

India

• 2021 Growth: 9.4%
• 2022 Growth: 7.6%
• Inflation: 5.4% in Q2 2021, expected to gradually subside
• Unemployment: 6.2% in Q2 2021, with a gradual decline expected in Q3
• Key Risk: A major new pandemic wave in Q2 2021 led to a significant forecast downgrade

Japan

• 2021 Growth: 3.0% (up 0.7 percentage points from Q1)
• 2022 Growth: 2.3%
• Inflation: 1.3% in 2021, 1.4% in 2022
• Central Bank Policy Rate: -0.1% in 2021, expected to remain low
• Key Risk: Slow vaccination roll-out and uncertainty around the Tokyo Olympics

Eurozone

• 2021 Growth: 5.5%
• 2022 Growth: 5.2%
• Inflation: 1.7% in 2021, 2.2% in 2022
• Key Risk: Potential for a delayed recovery and the risk of a third wave of the pandemic

Russia

• 2021 Growth: 2.8%
• 2022 Growth: 2.3%
• Inflation: 5.5% in 2021, 4.0% in 2022
• Central Bank Rate: 3.6% in 2021, 5.4% in 2022
• Key Risk: Political tensions and potential third wave of the pandemic

Global Risk Index (May 2021)

• Top Risks:
  • Pessimistic 1: -3.5% GDP impact, 23% probability
  • Pessimistic 2: -8.3% GDP impact, 5% probability
  • China Hard Landing: -2.3% GDP impact, 10% probability
  • Eurozone Recession: -2.3% GDP impact, 5% probability
  • US-China All-Out Trade War: -0.6% GDP impact, 7% probability

Assumptions

• Infection Rates: 5–25% for 2021, 15–35% for Pessimistic 1, 20–45% for Pessimistic 2
• Infection Mortality Rates: 0.3–1.3% for 2021, 0.3–1.3% for Pessimistic 1, 0.5–2% for Pessimistic 2
• Social Distancing Effects: 2–4 quarters for 2021, 3–6 quarters for Pessimistic 1, 4–8 quarters for Pessimistic 2
• Number of Pandemic Waves: 1–2 in 2021, 2–3 in Pessimistic 1, 3–4 in Pessimistic 2
• Consumer and Business Confidence: Expected to return to historic averages by Q3 2021
• Global Stock Prices: 0–30% growth in 2021, down by 10–40% in Pessimistic 1, down by 40–60% in Pessimistic 2
• Interest Rates: Expected to remain close to historic averages

Conclusion

The global economic outlook has improved, with advanced economies leading the recovery due to rapid vaccination and strong fiscal stimulus. Developing economies are also expected to recover, though at a slower pace. While the pandemic remains a significant risk, targeted lockdowns and consumer adaptation are helping to mitigate its impact. The report highlights the importance of monitoring vaccine effectiveness, potential new variants, and geopolitical tensions in shaping the future economic outlook.