> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2026 Summary ## Core Content The **ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS)** for Q2 2026 highlights a mixed economic landscape, with **rising cost pressures** and **moderate confidence recovery** among global accountants and CFOs. The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted global supply chains and commodity prices, contributing to heightened economic uncertainty. However, the **AI boom** is seen as a major positive driver for global growth and financial markets. --- ## Main Findings ### Cost Pressures - **Global Cost Increases**: Over 76% of accountants globally reported increased operating costs in Q2 2026, a record high. - **CFOs' Cost Concerns**: 83% of CFOs experienced increased costs, reflecting a significant rise from Q1. - **Regional Variations**: - **North America**: 74% of accountants reported increased costs, with 80% in the U.S. - **Western Europe**: 83% of respondents reported increased costs, almost double the series average. - **Asia Pacific**: 66% of accountants reported increased costs, also above the series average. - **Drivers**: The conflict in the Middle East, rising energy and commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions are the main contributors to cost increases. ### Confidence Recovery - **Accountants' Confidence**: Improved in Q2, but still at a low level by historical standards. - **CFOs' Confidence**: Rose slightly but remains below historical averages. - **Confidence Drivers**: Relative economic resilience, signs of potential conflict resolution, and the AI boom contributed to the recovery. ### Economic Growth and Policy - **Moderate Global Growth**: The three key global activity indicators softened in Q2, suggesting a slowdown in growth. - **AI as a Growth Driver**: The AI boom has supported global growth and financial markets, with strong corporate earnings and optimism about future benefits. - **Monetary Policy**: Central banks are adjusting policies due to inflationary pressures, with the **European Central Bank** raising interest rates and the **U.S. Federal Reserve** expected to hike rates by year-end. --- ## Key Risks and Concerns ### Economic Risks - **Top Risk**: Economic pressures remain the top risk priority (22%), ahead of geopolitical instability (20%) and cybersecurity (14%). - **Inflation Expectations**: 72% of respondents expect inflation to rise in their country over the next three months, with 42% anticipating interest rate hikes. - **Corporate Stress**: Both FEAR indices improved in Q2, but remain on the high side of readings since 2022. ### Cybersecurity Risks - **Systemic Cyber Risks**: Cyber threats are now viewed as systemic and existential, linked to AI adoption and third-party dependencies. - **Underestimated Risks**: Accountants highlighted the underestimation of risks such as accidental data leaks, cascading risks from software suppliers, and the integration of cybersecurity into broader operational security. ### AI and Workforce Implications - **AI as a Double-Edged Sword**: While AI is seen as a growth driver, concerns exist about its **sustainability** and **realistic return on investment**. - **Workforce Disruption**: Many organizations are making irreversible decisions based on unproven AI capabilities, leading to **layoffs** and **staff reductions**. - **Implementation Challenges**: There is a gap between AI ambitions and execution, with many struggling to integrate AI effectively and align it with competitive expectations. --- ## Structural Challenges - **Operational Coherence**: Organizations face the challenge of maintaining coherence amid **multiple pressures** such as rising costs, talent scarcity, and geopolitical instability. - **Talent Scarcity**: Rising labor costs and the shift to remote work have created **mentoring gaps** and **outsourcing trends**, affecting the future supply of skilled professionals. - **Demand Uncertainty**: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes are causing **unpredictable demand**, impacting **small businesses** and **export-oriented sectors**. --- ## Regional Insights ### North America - **AI Benefits**: Strongly benefiting from the AI boom, with increased IT investment and data center construction. - **GDP Growth**: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2 growth at 1.7%, down from Q1's 2.1%. - **Confidence**: Improved slightly, but still below historical averages. ### Asia Pacific - **Confidence Recovery**: Confidence and New Orders indices improved significantly, surpassing historical averages. - **AI Exports**: The region is a major beneficiary of the AI boom, with increased exports and stock market performance. ### Western Europe - **Low Confidence**: Confidence remains low, with the UK particularly affected. - **Energy Dependency**: As a large net importer of energy, the region faces significant cost pressures. - **AI Impact**: Less benefit from the AI boom compared to other regions. --- ## Conclusion The Q2 2026 survey indicates that while the global economy is showing signs of resilience and some recovery in confidence, **economic pressures and uncertainty** remain the dominant themes. The **Middle East conflict** continues to exert a strong influence on cost and inflation dynamics, while the **AI boom** is seen as a key growth driver. However, the **sustainability and governance** of AI investments, along with the **interconnected risks** of cost, talent, and geopolitical instability, are critical challenges for organizations. The outcome of the Middle East conflict and the actions of central banks, particularly the **U.S. Federal Reserve**, will be crucial in shaping the economic outlook for the second half of 2026.