2025-06-09-花旗集团-超级麦克斯（SUPM）_Supermax（SUPM.KL）模型更新_13页_437kb

Citigroup Research maintains a Neutral rating on Supermax (SUPM.KL) following the 3Q25 results, expecting FY2025E to be a loss-making year due to intensified competition. This contrasts with a previous forecast of RM37 million in profit. The estimate is based on a downgraded outlook, with FY2026E and FY2027E EPS projected down by 2-4% year-over-year. Key downside risks include a flattish NT volume outlook from uncertainties in tariffs and ongoing front-loading activities, exacerbated by potential foreign exchange headwinds.

Supermax, a leading global glove manufacturer with a significant market share in OEM and OBM segments, primarily operates in Malaysia. While the company has a large cash balance (approximately 40% of market capitalization, or RM0.8 billion, equating to RM0.26 per share), providing potential downside protection, its recovery from losses is expected to be slower than industry peers, given broader competitive pressures.

Valuation remains unchanged at RM0.67 target price, revised marginally lower from previous estimates, reflecting a switch to a PER-based approach from PB multiples. The Neutral recommendation stems from light investor positioning and the expectation of sequential earnings recovery, but risks include slower-than-anticipated average selling price (ASP) moderation, volatility in feedstock costs (which account for c.40-50% of COGS), and FX fluctuations. Financial data shows Supermax reported losses in 2023A and 2024A, with improving indicators from 2025E onward.