20170406-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_19页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of financial and economic updates for the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on Malaysia, China, and Singapore, as well as broader market indices and sector analyses. It includes investment recommendations, key assumptions, corporate events, and risk factors.
Key Stories
Malaysia
- Press Metal (PRESS MK/BUY/RM2.68/Target: RM3.30)
- Expected to deliver a 3-year earnings CAGR of 21.9% in 2017–19.
- Major catalyst for growth is a planned 50% expansion at its Samalaju plant.
China
- Xiongan New Area
- A new experimental zone for future reforms, located near Beijing.
- Aimed to relocate non-capital functions such as SOE headquarters, universities, and healthcare facilities.
- Intended to ease population and pollution pressures in Beijing.
- Expected to promote balanced economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei triangle.
- Likely to attract large-scale infrastructure investment and foster innovation and environmental-friendly growth.
Main Points and Key Information
Market Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 20648.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -1.5 | 4.5 |
| S&P 500 | 2353.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | 5.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 7331.7 | +0.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.6 |
| AS30 | 5915.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +2.2 | 3.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3503.9 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +1.7 | 5.9 |
| FSSTI | 3176.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +1.8 | 10.3 |
| HSI | 24400.8 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +3.4 | 10.9 |
| JCI | 5677.0 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +4.9 | 7.2 |
| KLCI | 1744.7 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +1.0 | 6.3 |
| KOSPI | 2160.9 | -0.0 | -0.3 | +3.8 | 6.6 |
| Nikkei 225 | 18861.3 | +0.3 | -1.9 | -2.7 | -1.3 |
| SET | 1582.1 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +1.8 | 2.5 |
| TWSE | 9949.5 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +2.8 | 7.5 |
| BDI | 1223 | -2.5 | -8.6 | +30.2 | +27.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2881 | +0.5 | -0.2 | -3.2 | -9.9 |
| Brent Crude | 54 | +0.4 | +3.7 | -2.8 | -4.3 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | BABA US | $107.44 | $130.00 | 21.0 |
| Beijing Ent. Water | 371 HK | HK$6.09 | HK$7.60 | 24.8 |
| Indosat | ISAT IJ | Rp7,000.00 | Rp7,900.00 | 12.9 |
| Tiga Pilar | AISA IJ | Rp2,230.00 | Rp2,550.00 | 14.3 |
| V.S. Industry | VSI MK | RM1.85 | RM2.20 | 18.9 |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | S$9.70 | S$10.75 | 10.8 |
| Venture Corp | VMS SP | RM11.51 | RM12.40 | 7.7 |
Key Assumptions
| Country | GDP Growth (yoy) 2016 | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Malaysia | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Thailand | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Brent (Avg) | 45 | 55 | 60 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,500 |
Corporate Events (April 2017)
- Roadshow with Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings
- Shanghai: 7 Apr
- Taiwan: 12–13 Apr
- Roadshow with Singamas Container
- Shanghai: TBA
- Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp
- Hong Kong: 10 Apr
- Group Meeting with Yihai Int'l Holdings
- Hong Kong: 10 Apr
- Luncheon with Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group
- Hong Kong: 11 Apr
- Plant Visit with Hume Industries
- Perak: 11 Apr
- Roadshow with Universal Medical Financial and Technology
- Hong Kong: 12 Apr
- Roadshow with Singamas Container
- Shanghai: 12 Apr
- Analyst Presentation on China Economics
- Taiwan: 17–18 Apr
- Group Luncheon with U-Mobile
- Kuala Lumpur: 19 Apr
- Group Luncheon with Singamas Container Holdings
- Hong Kong: 20 Apr
- Analyst Presentation on Malaysia Outlook and Strategy
- Singapore: 20–21 Apr
- Group Luncheon with CAT Telecom
- Thailand: 28 Apr
- Roadshow with Singtel
- Canada: 26 May
- Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital
- Canada: 5–6 Jun
- Luncheon with United Overseas Bank
- Singapore: 3 Jul
- Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation
- US/Canada: 5–12 Sep
China Property Sector: Potential Beneficiaries
| Company | Stock Code | Market Cap (US$ m) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Fortune Land | 600340 CH | 12,852 | 5.4m sqm GFA, MOUs in Baoding, Cangzhou, Bazhou, Wen'an |
| Risesun | 002146 CH | 6,047 | 2.8m sqm GFA, MOUs in Bazhou and Laishui |
| Kinghand Industry | 000615 CH | 1,721 | MOUs nearby the zone (1500 Mu) |
| Langfang Development | 600149 CH | 1,005 | Parent group is Hebei Langfang local SOE |
| BBMG | 2009 HK/601992 CH | 7,652 | Strong cement demand from new construction, involved in social housing development |
| China VAST Industry | 6166 HK | 788 | 136m planned industrial zone GFA in Langfang, Shijiazhuang |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | 13,493 | Largest shareholder of Langfang Development, 12.2m sqm landbank in Hebei |
| BJ Capital Land | 2868 HK | 1,442 | Beijing local SOE developer, involved in social housing development |
China Banking Sector: 4Q16 Summary
-
Asset Quality Stabilisation:
- Stresses eased, especially in coastal regions.
- CCB, ABC, and CMB saw reductions in SMLs and overdue loans.
- CCB's NPL balance declined by 0.6% qoq, while BOC and CMB had higher provisioning charges.
-
Loan Growth:
- Expected to be between 8–9% for 2017.
- CMB showed the most upbeat guidance of 12%.
-
NIM (Net Interest Margin):
- Pressured due to rate cuts and VAT reform.
- ICBC, BOC, and BoCom saw stabilisation.
-
Top Picks:
- BUY: CCB, ICBC, CMB
- HOLD: ABC, BOC
-
Sector Catalysts:
- Stabilisation in asset quality.
- Regulatory focus on controlling financial risks.
- Preference for large banks due to better risk management and resilience.
-
Risks:
- Trade war between China and the US.
- Moderation in earnings growth due to credit control, WMP sales, and interbank activity restrictions.
Healthcare Sector: 2016 Results Round-up
-
PE Premium to MSCI China:
- Remains historically low at 40.7%, due to slow top-line growth and uncertainty in drug price regulation.
- Valuation recovery is expected from volume growth and accelerated approvals of innovative drugs.
-
Top Picks:
- TUL (3933 HK/BUY/Target: HK$5.90)
- 61% of revenue from API business in 2016.
- 6-APA prices hit bottom in 2H16.
- CSPC (1093 HK/BUY/Target: HK$12.49)
- Vitamin C prices surged from Rmb26,600/tonne to Rmb45,900/tonne in 2016–17.
- Expected EBIT of HK$55m in 1Q17 (vs HK$22m in 4Q16).
- TUL (3933 HK/BUY/Target: HK$5.90)
Analysts Contact
- Zhu Chaoping
- +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
- chaoping@uobkayhian.com
- David Yang
- +8621-5404 7225 ext 801
- davidyang@uobkayhian.com
- Wendy Liu
- +8621 5404 7225 ext 811
- wendyliu@uobkayhian.com
- Jonathan Koh, CFA
- +65 6590 6620
- jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com
- Jasmine Duan
- +852 2826 1351
- jasmine.duan@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Yan Shi
- +8621 5405 7225 ext 804
- yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
- Yinglei Li
- +8621 5405 7225 ext 819
- yinglei@uobkayhian.com
Conclusion
The document highlights the strategic importance of the Xiongan New Area in China as a hub for future reforms and economic development. It also discusses the performance of key sectors like banking and healthcare, with a focus on asset quality stabilisation and potential recovery in valuations. Investment recommendations are provided for both property and energy/environmental protection sectors, with caution advised due to regulatory uncertainties and risks.
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