2025-04-29-Jefferies-HubSpot（HUBS）_合作伙伴调查显示第一季度表现稳健_近期前景波动可能受时间因素影响_33页_1mb

HUBS Partner Survey Summary: 1Q25 and Outlook for 2025

Core Content Overview

The document provides a comprehensive analysis of HUBS (HubSpot) based on a survey of 25 partners, covering performance in the first quarter of 2025, market outlook, and potential challenges. It also includes financial forecasts, investment thesis, and ESG considerations.

Key Findings from the Partner Survey

• Strong 1Q25 Performance:

  • 40% of partners exceeded expectations, 52% were in line, and only 8% missed, marking the best performance since 1Q24.
  • The results suggest durable demand, and HUBS is expected to deliver at least a modest beat in total CC rev growth of ~15%.
  • The survey was conducted during a period of tariff-driven uncertainty, which may have skewed the results. If run today, the outlook might appear less cautious.

• Tariffs Causing Deal Delays, Not Cancellations:

  • 44% of partners reported that the April 2nd tariff announcement caused deal delays, but none reported cancellations.
  • 76% of partners indicated that the tariff had no impact on the deal pipeline.
  • The results suggest that while uncertainty is affecting customer decision-making, demand remains resilient and the impact is expected to be temporary.

• 2025 Growth Expectations Ticked Down:

  • 68% of partners expect higher y/y growth in 2025 compared to 2024, down from 71% in the 4Q survey.
  • 16% of partners anticipate a decline in growth, up from 0% in 4Q.
  • Partners are likely incorporating conservatism into their forecasts due to recent uncertainty. Management is expected to take a conservative approach in updating 2025 guidance, possibly reiterating the prior outlook of 16% total CC rev growth.

• NRR Downtick Expected in 1Q25:

  • NRR is expected to decline from 104% in 4Q to ~102%, aligning with historical seasonality.
  • A broader reduction in usage is anticipated, with 56% of partners reporting decreasing usage, compared to only 4% and 12% in the prior two quarters.

• Partner Sentiment and Ecosystem:

  • There is some tension in the partner ecosystem, with 48% of partners feeling the previous pricing model was better for customers, up from 25% in 4Q.
  • Only 20% of partners believe the new pricing model is better, down from 29% previously.
  • 20% of partners indicated the partner program needs improvement, up from 8% in 4Q.

Investment Thesis

• HUBS is well-positioned for high compound growth due to its ability to penetrate the core Marketing customer base and expand through Sales, Service, Content, Commerce, and Operations Hubs.
• The company is gaining traction with larger enterprises, which typically have higher LTV and lower churn.
• Channel partners are a key driver of upmarket growth, and HUBS has successfully built this go-to-market motion.

Financial Forecasts and Scenarios

Base Case: $700 (+14%)

• HUBS is expected to deliver mid-teen subscription revenue growth through 2026.
• Sales and Service Hubs continue to gain traction, particularly with larger customers.
• Operating margins are expected to improve modestly over time.
• Customer growth is in the mid-teens, with ASRPC growth slightly slowing due to strong Starter adds.
• The price target is based on a DCF analysis.

Upside Scenario: $850 (+38%)

• Greater than 20% subscription revenue growth through 2026.
• Breeze drives increased Hub adoption and tier upgrades.
• Margins expand more quickly than expected.
• HUBS launches new hubs over the next 2–3 years.
• Payments gain traction faster than anticipated.
• ASRPC growth accelerates as existing customers outpace downward pressure from low-cost SKUs.
• The price target is based on a DCF analysis.

Downside Scenario: $480 (-22%)

• Subscription revenue growth drops to the low teens.
• Long-term margin expansion is limited due to rising customer acquisition costs and/or greater churn.
• New products fail to drive the traction needed to justify R&D investments.
• Customer growth slows and ASRPC declines due to low-cost SKUs outpacing existing customer growth.
• The price target is based on a DCF analysis.

ESG Considerations

• Top Material Issues:

  • Customer Privacy: HUBS stores and processes confidential data, and must navigate ESG-related regulations in Europe and APAC.
  • Environmental Targets: Aims to reduce absolute scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 from the 2019 base year.
  • Inclusive Work Environment: Focus on retaining BIPOC talent and improving diversity.
  • Self-Service Information: Providing more transparency on Privacy and Security practices.

• Questions to Management:

  • What actions will HUBS take to meet international privacy standards?
  • What has been effective in supporting and retaining BIPOC talent?
  • What steps are being taken to meet environmental science-based targets?

Catalysts for Growth

• Breeze: Driving increased Hub adoption and tier upgrades.
• Sales Hub: Gaining traction, especially with larger customers.
• Service Hub Relaunch: Spurring adoption.
• HubSpot Payments: Expected to gain traction.
• New Pricing Model: Driving sustained higher net adds and increased upgrades.

Financial Highlights (1Q25)

• Total Revenue: Estimated at $698M (consensus: $700M), implying ~13% y/y growth on an as-reported basis.
• Organic CC Growth: ~15.9% y/y.
• Subscription Revenue: ~$682M (+13% y/y), with consensus at $685M.
• Professional Services Revenue: ~$16M (+18% y/y), with consensus at $14M.
• Billings: ~$727M (+13% y/y), slightly below consensus of $729M.
• Gross Margin: 86.5%, ahead of consensus of 85.7%.
• Operating Income: ~$99M (14.1% margin), in line with guidance and slightly below consensus of $100M (14.2% margin).

Valuation and Risk/Reward

• Current Valuation: HUBS trades at ~7.9x EV/Rev and 37x P/FCF, based on 2027 estimates.
• Premium Valuation: Despite recent declines, the valuation is still a premium to peers and the broader software universe.
• Risk/Reward: The 12-month outlook suggests a moderate risk-reward profile, with potential for upside if regulatory clarity allows pent-up demand to flow.

Summary of Key Financial Tables

Conclusion

HUBS started 2025 with strong results, indicating resilient demand despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Partners are cautiously optimistic about 2025 growth, with a slight decrease in expectations. The company's focus on expanding into new hubs and improving its pricing model positions it for long-term growth, though there is a risk of temporary deal delays due to recent tariff announcements. The valuation remains a premium, suggesting potential for upside if the regulatory environment stabilizes. ESG considerations, particularly around customer privacy and environmental goals, are key areas for management to address.