2025-06-11-Jefferies-诺瓦瓦克斯（NVAX）_新的CIC_流感数据支持与合作伙伴进入3期试验_9页_831kb

报告摘要

Product Focus: Novavax is developing COVID-19 and flu combo vaccines (CIC) and standalone flu vaccines (tNIV) using its recombinant protein and Matrix-M adjuvant.
Phase 3 Data: Recent Phase 3 trial (N~2,000 adults >64yr) confirmed safety and immunogenicity from Phase 2, showing robust immune responses (~2.4-5.7x baseline boost) against COVID-19 and flu strains with a favorable safety profile (>98% mild/moderate AEs).
Investment Recommendation: Buy rating with a price target of $25.00 (+247% upside), driven by positive data supporting further development and partnership opportunities for the combo vaccine.
Market Opportunity: Idiopathic preference for combination vaccines and the first non-mRNA option since approval, with potential advantages in side-effect profile and cold-chain-free formulation.
Next Steps: Ongoing discussions for partnerships to finalize Phase 3 design and prepare for the 2025-2026 flu season and COVID-19 booster programs.

Risks: Clinical trial delays, competition, evolving COVID-19 strains (e.g., NB.1.8.1 emerging), reimbursement challenges, and dependency on partner support.
Valuation: Based on DCF and peer comparison, supporting a Buy recommendation amid broader market volatility.
Regulatory Dynamics: FDA guidance favors broader coverage strains; efficacy data remains key for registration, influenced by Omicron-era immune correlates.
Partner Strategy: The company is pivoting toward a leaner model, avoiding standalone clinical programs to focus on partnerships for commercialization.

Analysts: Roger Song, MD, CFA; Liang Cheng, Ph.D.; Fiona Jia, Ph.D.; Cha Cha Yang, MS, MBA.
Price target update from $7.20 to $25.00, reflecting de-risking from Phase 3 data.
Comparison with peers: Firms like Moderna (HOLD) are facing efficacy challenges, highlighting Novavax's potential as a distinct opportunity.

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