2012-01-17-奥纬咨询-2012_AFP_Risk_Survey_21页_1mb

2012 AFP Risk Survey Summary

Background

• The survey, commissioned by the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) with support from the Oliver Wyman Group, aimed to understand corporate financial risks and management challenges in an era of increased uncertainty.
• It was designed to measure risk awareness among senior corporate financial practitioners across North America and understand their perceived financial exposure to key risks.

Key Findings Summary

1. Prevalent Challenges and Sources of Uncertainty

• Organizations face interconnected risks from financial markets, operational disruptions, and macroeconomic conditions (economy growth, inflation, natural disasters, regulatory changes).
• Primary areas of concern (72%): Managing financial uncertainty primarily linked to credit, liquidity, interest rates, and currency/foreign exchange risks.
• Drivers of earnings uncertainty (29%): Macroeconomic factors (GDP growth, inflation) are the second biggest driver of uncertainty.
• Anticipated change: Major concerns are that overall earnings uncertainty will stay the same (52%) rather than decline, with a significant minority (41%) expecting an increase.

2. Understanding and Quantifying Risk

• Rating of challenges: Organizations rate the difficulty in obtaining and quantifying risk data highly, with challenges related to internal systems, data access, analytics, and resources cited by a large portion of respondents.
• Risk likelihood: Among various risk categories, financial risks were the primary concern, followed by macroeconomic, external, business/operations, and commodity risks.
• Quantification difficulties: Specific risks areas that pose challenges in quantification include currency/FX risks, intellectual property risks, operational risks (supply chain, labor, IT), and external risks like regulatory changes.

3. Anticipation of Risks by Risk Category

• Highest concern: Financial risk, inflation, and supply chain disruptions were the top three concerns.
• Strongest impact beliefs: Respondents most strongly believed supply chain disruption, production interruptions, and IT issues could have the most significant impact on earnings.

4. Responses and Mitigation Strategies

• Increased use of IT and planning: Nearly half of organizations surveyed have increased investment in IT systems upgrades; a similar percentage have increased margin growth and revenue targets.
• Hedging and risk transfer: 31% increased hedging use, and 30% increased contractual risk transfer (like insurance).
• Strategic shifts: Many executives and organizations have slowed or reduced investments in expansion, capital expenditures, and staffing due to rising uncertainty.

5. Risk Perception Across Different Organization Types

• Larger and publicly-traded organizations face greater challenges in quantifying certain risks (like FX and credit risks) due to scale and global operations.
• Smaller organizations face difficulties with risks often perceived as less severe by larger organizations (supply chain, IT, labor).

6. Conclusion

• Organizations are struggling to manage risk effectively due to limited analytical capabilities and reliable data.
• To meet key goals amidst increasing uncertainty, companies must change their mindset and develop the capacity for risk-adjusted decisions.

Challenges

• IT systems limitations, data access issues, analytical challenges, and lack of internal resources.
• External challenges: Specific challenges include lacking management support, and difficulty integrating existing data.

Summary Key Message

Corporations must adapt their risk management strategies to navigate increasing interconnected risks and volatility to protect their financial performance. The study underscores the importance of deep and effective risk quantification and strategic mitigation.