2015-01-22-奥纬咨询-2015_AFP_Risk_Survey_34页_1mb

2015 AFP Risk Survey Summary

Core Content

The 2015 AFP Risk Survey highlights the persistent challenges businesses face in managing earnings uncertainty and emerging risks, particularly cyberthreats. It underscores the importance of integrating risk management into core business strategies and the need for a more comprehensive, enterprise-wide approach to risk identification and response. The survey was conducted in October 2014 and involved AFP's senior corporate practitioner membership, with insights provided by Oliver Wyman, part of Marsh & McLennan Companies.

Main Viewpoints

• Earnings Uncertainty Remains High: Financial professionals continue to report high levels of earnings uncertainty, with 43% indicating it has increased over the past three years. Only 14% see a decrease in uncertainty, while 43% believe it remains unchanged.
• Risk Forecasting Challenges: Forecasting risk is seen as increasingly difficult. 78% of respondents believe it is as difficult or more difficult than three years ago. The majority expect this challenge to persist or worsen in the future.
• Cybersecurity is a Major Concern: Cyberattacks are a significant threat, with 34% of companies reporting they were targeted in the past 18 months. The most feared impact is reputational damage, cited by 45% of respondents, with 51% of those who experienced breaches citing it as the most severe impact.
• Response Plans Are Lacking: Only 40% of organizations have a clearly documented response plan for cyberattacks, with 60% lacking one entirely. This highlights a gap in preparedness despite the growing frequency and severity of cyber threats.
• Risk Management is Evolving: There is a shift towards a more holistic view of risk, including business and operational risks. Financial professionals are increasingly using risk data and analytics to inform business strategy and improve risk identification.

Key Findings

Earnings Risk Factors

• Top Three Risk Factors (in order):

  1. Political and Regulatory Uncertainty (44%)
  2. Tougher Competition (38%)
  3. Customer Satisfaction/Retention (33%)

• Other Risk Factors:

  • Macroeconomic factors: 20%
  • Commodities: 11%
  • Financial factors: 24%
  • External factors: 20%

Risk Forecasting

• 78% of financial professionals believe forecasting risk is as difficult or more difficult than three years ago.
• 60% of companies do not have a clear response plan for cyber breaches.
• Forecasting Difficulty:
  • 31% report it is more difficult than three years ago.
  • 16% expect it to be easier in 2017.
  • 46% anticipate it will be more difficult in 2017.

Actions Taken by Organizations

• 65% of companies are adopting strategies to respond to current and emerging risks.
• Common Strategies:
  • Adjusting product lines or offerings (69%)
  • Extending or creating new supply chain partnerships (62%)
  • Increasing capital expenditures (59%)
  • Expanding workforces and re-prioritizing geographic markets (59%)
  • Increasing M&A activity, joint ventures, and external equity investment (50%)
  • Increasing insurance coverage and developing legal entities (46%)
  • Focusing on divesting business activity (43%)

Cybersecurity Measures

• Technical Safeguards: 71% of companies are implementing technical changes and safeguards (e.g., multi-level approvals, authentication procedures, access controls).
• Training and Education: 62% of respondents report that their organizations are adapting training to better educate staff on cyber threats.
• Segmentation of Payment Authorization: 43% of organizations are using this method.
• Crisis Response Plan: 40% of companies have developed and updated their crisis response plans.

Key Insights

• Cyberattacks are a growing threat: With the increasing frequency and sophistication of cyber threats, organizations must adopt a more comprehensive approach to risk management that includes process, training, and proactive planning.
• Reputational Damage is a Major Concern: Organizations fear the long-term impact of reputational damage more than direct financial loss or regulatory consequences.
• Larger Companies Face More Risks: Larger companies (annual revenues ≥ $1 billion) and publicly traded firms are more likely to experience cyberattacks and have a greater exposure to various risk factors.
• The Need for Agility: In an uncertain environment, the ability to quickly adapt and respond to emerging risks is crucial for organizational success and resilience.

Conclusion

The 2015 AFP Risk Survey emphasizes the ongoing challenges of earnings uncertainty and the critical need for robust risk management strategies. It highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity and the necessity for a more integrated, enterprise-wide approach to managing risks. Financial professionals are increasingly aware of the need to leverage data and analytics for better decision-making, while the lack of comprehensive response plans and a focus on technical solutions over broader risk management practices remain areas for improvement.