20230829-招银国际-青岛啤酒股份-00168.HK-2Q_rev_np_+8_14__on_recurring_strengths_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Key Financial Highlights for Q2 2023

2Q revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB11bn.
Net profit rose by 14% to RMB2.0bn, driven by 3% volume growth and a 5% average selling price (ASP) increase from mix improvement and premiumization.
Compared to competitors: CR Beer's HSD growth was lower, while Budweiser achieved 20% growth.
Profitability improved with gross margin up 2pp to 33% and EBITDA margin stable at 21%.

Analyst Views and Recommendations

Call Summary: Faster sales growth in Shandong and Eastern China due to consumer trade-up; capacity optimization benefits started emerging; August sales affected by extreme weather, but September potential for recovery. Subsidy delay reduced Q2 net profits by RMB70mn; expenses controlled, with revenue cost savings expected in H2.
Management Commentary: Ongoing price reviews; selective price increases in high-ASP segments; ASP uptick driven by sub-premium+ shipment growth (39% total in H1, expected to persist).
Earnings Forecasts: Unchanged for 2023E after revisions. Target Price lowered to HK$88.9 (32.9% upside from current price HK$66.9).
Stock Rating: BUY, with 15x EV/EBITDA multiple unchanged.

Financial Projections and Valuation

Earnings Revisions: Unchanged 2023E/24E/25E forecasts; gross margins expected to expand to 32.0% by FY25.
Valuation Metrics: P/E ratios decreasing from 25.4x to 15.4x; P/B reducing from 3.5x to 2.7x; ROE projected to reach 17.9% by 2025.
Target Price: HK$88.9.

Comparative Analysis