2025-06-16-花旗集团-土耳其经济_图表包_截至6月6日的一周_11页_306kb

报告摘要

Foreign Reserves:
- Gross foreign reserves rose slightly to $155.9B (weekly +0.1%, 13-week annualized +2.7%).
- Net international reserves increased by $2.8B (weekly +1.4%, slower than previous week).
- Net Financial Assets (NFA) grew $2.8B, but excluding swaps, NFA reached $25.3B.
Foreign Exchange Activity:
- Total FX deposits slightly declined to $190.6B (weekly -1.4%, -4.7% YTD).
- Corporate FX deposits dropped by $2.3B (weekly); households saw a lesser decline.
- FX protected deposits (both TRY and USD) reversed recent gains; total shrinking by 7.6% YTD.
Loan Growth:
- Total loans expanded 31.1% annually (FX adjusted), driven by corporate and consumer segments.
- Credit card loans surged 77.1% annually (note: context unclear, but likely exceptional growth).
- Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stabilized at 2.2%, with slight improvements in consumer and SME sectors.
Investment & Risk:
- Non-resident portfolio inflows increased moderately (+4.5%), contrasting with previous losses (-8.2% YTD).
- Off-balance sheet FX positions reached $28.8B, higher by 0.34% weekly, signaling increasing leverage.

Reserves/Stability: Weak reserve growth and persistent FX outflows highlight currency pressure.
Credit &Consumption: Robust loan growth, particularly in consumer lending, suggests improving confidence but warrants monitoring interest rate trends.
Investor Behavior: Reluctance by non-residents in equity/government bonds contrasts with tentative inflows into corporate bonds.
Risk Outlook: Elevated loan-to-deposit ratios (86.1%) and fragile household balance sheets (e.g., high consumer loan rates) could amplify vulnerabilities.