2025-06-09-花旗集团-农业周报-图表和数据_截至6月6日的一周；生物燃料原料消耗_33页_2mb

Viewpoint Summary (June 9, 2025)

Citigroup Analysis

1. Biofuels Feedstock Consumption in the US

   • In 2025, the US biomass-based diesel feedstock consumption decreased by approximately 25% compared to 2024 (year-over-year同比下降), averaging 2.5 billion pounds/month in Q1 2025 vs. 3.2 billion pounds/month in 2024.

     • Key Drivers: Weaker biofuel margins due to policy uncertainty reduced overall production, leading to lower feedstock demand.

   • Tax Credit Policy Impact:

     • Initial guidance for the 45Z biofuel tax credit (January 2025) discouraged the use of canola oil and foreign cooking oil (significant declines).
     • May 2025 guidance revised the tax credit, offering better incentives for soybean oil and canola oil compared to older policies.
       • Consumption Trends:
         • Canola oil consumption fell 57% YoY.
         • Soybean oil dropped 38% YoY (still below pre-2025 levels).
         • Waste fats/oils (animal fats, used oil) and corn oil saw milder declines (-10%, -5%) as their tax credit treatment remained favorable.

   • Shift in Feedstock Use:

     • While the May guidance could incent increased demand for soybean oil and canola (cheaper substitutes for fats/oils), industry-wide production has not yet increased significantly.
     • Soybean oil prices rose recently, but remain discounted to animal fats and corn oil (contrary to historical premiums).

   • Market Indicators:

     • US soybean oil futures curves increased (Figures 1, 3, 4), but maintain a discount to corn oil and animal fats.
     • Biomass-based diesel totals are tracked by feedstock types (Figure 5, Summary Tables).

2. Trends by Industry

   • Animal Products: Chicken (turkey, beef, pork) data shows prices, supply/demand, and inventory levels fluctuate. Consumer demand and export patterns remain under scrutiny.
   • Oilseed Crush: Global crush margins (Brazil, Argentina, China) vary by region, influenced by domestic policies and energy demand.
   • Renewable Fuels: California's LCFS program continues to drive renewable diesel thresholds, with diversified feedstock use (soybean oil, used cooking oil, tallow) shaping margins (Figures 36, 38, 39).

Key Takeaways:

• The biofuel industry faces policy-induced feedstock demand shifts.
• The 45Z tax credit revision could influence consumer behavior toward cheaper oils, but data on production shifts remain limited.
• Monitoring feedstock consumption is crucial for industry margin projections, especially regarding renewable fuel mandates.