20140611-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_439kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 11 June 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market analysis and stock performance update for various companies in the Philippines on 11 June 2014, including the PSEi index, key stocks such as NIKL, ANS, and others, as well as insights from analysts at Maybank ATR Kim Eng.

Key Market Indicators

Indicator	Value	% Change
PSEi	6,777.98	-0.36%
Turnover (PHPm)	7,986.83	+27.99%
PLDT ADR (USD)	66.14	-0.15%
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,888.66	+0.06%
Ave interbank rate	2.00	0 bps
PHP/USD rate	43.66	-0.23%

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo - Head of Research / Economist
- Contact: (632)849 8836
- Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Laura Dy-Liacco
- Contact: (632) 849 8840
- Email: laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo
- Contact: (632) 849 8839
- Email: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal
- Contact: (632) 849 8841
- Email: lovell_sreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan
- Contact: (632) 849 8843
- Email: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com
Ramon Adviento
- Contact: (63) 28498845
- Email: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com

Top Idea: Mining Sector - NIKL (PHP28.15)

Recommendation: HOLD (unchanged)
Target Price (TP): PHP27.62
Key Points:
- NIKL reported 1H14 earnings of PHP3.1b, which is close to the full-year forecast of PHP8.5b.
- NIKL started shipping out three new grades of nickel: 1.7%, 1.4%, and 1.2%.
- Guidance for 2014 production was increased by 1.2m WMT to 17.2m WMT.
- NPI prices have increased, nearing the 2008 high.
- Management hinted at special cash/stock dividends in 2H14.
- The drawdown of inventories in China slowed, leading to a more balanced market outlook.

Market Talk

Conglomerates: ANS (PHP7.00)

1Q14 Profit: PHP1.09b, up 94% YoY.
Trading Gains: Reached PHP989m, up 120% YoY.
Interest Expenses: Increased to PHP15m.
Recommendation: HOLD
Revised Target Price: PHP7.76
Updated Net Income Forecast: PHP1.50b for 2014, down 1% to PHP1.25b for 2015.
Investment Portfolio: Updated to PHP13.91, with a 2.6% increase.
Discounts: 50% on quoted investments, 20% on overall liquidity.
EPS Growth: 313.6% in 2014, 56.7% in 2015.

Mining: SCC

Legal Issue: Received a summons based on a civil complaint from Bauer Foundation Philippines Inc.
Claimed Damages: PHP507.1m (PHP7m actual, PHP500m exemplary, PHP100,000 litigation cost).
Reason for Claim: SCC completed the project themselves due to delays by Bauer.
Contingent Liability: Expected to be reflected as PHP507m.
Outlook: Anticipated long civil case with potential for higher exemplary damages.

Property: ELI

Deal: Finalizing a deal to take over a 23-hectare factory in Pasig City.
Development: To be developed as Empire East City.
Revenue Growth: Expected to grow 10-20% this year.
Net Profit Growth: 15-30% increase.
Part of Expansion: PHP25b planned expansion by Megaworld Corp.

Consumer Durables: Vehicle Sales

May Sales: Increased by 23.6% YoY and 8.3% QoQ to 19,598 units.
Passenger Cars: Rose 44.3% to 7,507 units.
Commercial Vehicles: Grew 13.4% to 12,091 units.
Market Leader: Toyota Motor Philippines with 44.4% market share.
CAMPI Sales: 211,558 units in 2014, exceeding target.

Analyst View on NIKL

Profit Forecast: PHP3.1b for 1H14, with a strong likelihood of hitting the full-year forecast of PHP8.5b.
Price Trends: Higher-grade products (saprolite) prices dropped, while lower-grade limonite prices increased.
Market Balance: Expected to be more balanced with deficit likely in 2015.

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 10 June 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	91.20	93.50	3	HOLD	2014F	5,432	1.20	48.03	1.3	1.6	1.3	13.2	1.3	1.6	13.2
BPI	86.30	93.50	8	HOLD	2014F	5,233	1.20	48.03	1.4	1.8	1.4	13.2	1.4	1.6	13.2
CHIB	54.60	60.00	10	HOLD	2014F	5,233	1.20	48.03	1.4	1.8	1.4	13.2	1.4	1.6	13.2
EW	31.10	31.80	2	HOLD	2014F	8,605	0.28	2.11	2.2	5.9	4.2	8.9	4.2	8.8	13.6
MBT	85.40	92.00	8	BUY	2014F	9,580	0.61	7.14	5.2	4.2	5.5	8.9	4.2	8.8	13.6
PNB	89.50	109.00	22	BUY	2014F	3,213	1.66	12.41	3.4	3.4	4.5	8.9	15.7	14.2	14.1
PBB	24.10	310.00	30	BUY	2014F	3,213	1.66	12.41	3.4	3.4	4.5	8.9	15.7	14.2	14.1
DMPL	21.00	30.00	43	BUY	2014F	952	0.61	7.14	5.2	4.2	8.9	13.6	8.9	13.6	14.1
RRHI	70.30	77.50	10	BUY	2014F	3,384	2.48	28.80	2.4	6.2	8.9	13.6	23.3	4.7	8.9
CIC	42.05	50.00	19	BUY	2014F	4,580	1.66	12.41	3.4	4.2	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1
PGOLD	42.05	50.00	19	BUY	2014F	4,580	1.66	12.41	3.4	4.2	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1
MEG	4.58	5.29	16	BUY	2014F	10,179	0.34	12.41	1.1	14.1	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1
ALI	30.60	37.80	24	BUY	2014F	15,124	1.08	8.44	2.8	12.5	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1
FLI	1.67	2.50	50	BUY	2014F	4,492	0.19	2.15	0.8	13.6	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1
PEG	237.80	310.00	30	BUY	2014F	3,213	1.66	12.41	3.4	14.1	8.9	13.6	15.7	8.9	14.1

The Week Ahead

Events:
- Harbor Star Shipping Services, Inc.
- Keppel Philippines Properties, Inc.
- Annual Stockholder's Meeting

Key Takeaways

NIKL's performance is expected to meet or exceed forecasts with a potential for special dividends.
ANS's trading gains significantly boosted profits in Q1, leading to a revised TP of PHP7.76.
Vehicle sales in May showed strong growth, with Toyota as the market leader.
SCC faces a legal issue with a potential contingent liability of PHP507m.
The mining sector is experiencing a shift in NPI preference, affecting nickel prices.
The property sector is seeing development opportunities, with ELI planning a mixed-use development.

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