2025-05-29-Bernstein-Salesforce公司（CRM）_Salesforce2026年第一季度_不算差_也不惊艳_符合预期_20页_551kb

Salesforce 1Q26 Summary

Core Content

Salesforce reported a quarter that was in line with expectations, beating revenue but missing on margins. The revenue beat was largely attributed to favorable foreign exchange (FX) effects, while the margin miss was due to increased headcount investments and M&A activities. The company also announced the acquisition of Informatica for $8B, which is viewed as a reasonable and strategic move to enhance its data management capabilities.

Main Points

• Quarterly Performance:

  • Revenue: $9.83B, slightly above consensus and guidance.
  • Subscription Revenue: $9.30B, slightly above consensus.
  • Professional Services and Other Revenue: $532M, slightly above consensus.
  • EPS: Diluted PF EPS of $2.58, 1% above consensus.
  • Operating Margin: Non-GAAP operating margin of 32.3%, 20 bps below consensus.
  • Cash Flow: Cash from operations of $6.48B, 4% above consensus.

• Guidance Update:

  • 2Q26 Revenue: $10.11B–$10.16B, above street consensus of $10.02B.
  • FY26 Revenue: Raised to $41.0B–$41.3B from $40.5B–$40.9B, driven by FX tailwinds.
  • Subscription Revenue Growth: Expected to grow at 9.5% Y/Y.
  • CC Growth: Maintained at approximately 9%.
  • Non-GAAP EPS: Raised to $11.27–$11.33 from $11.09–$11.17.

• Valuation:

  • Price Target: $255.00, up from $243.00.
  • Upside/Downside: -8% relative to current price.
  • Valuation Metrics:
    • Adjusted P/E: 24.3.
    • EV/Sales: 6.4.
    • P/Sales: 6.5.
    • PEG Ratio: 2.2.
    • EV/EBIT: 18.6.
    • EV/FCF: 19.1.

Key Information

The Informatica Acquisition

• Deal Value: $8B, slightly under 5x EV/Sales.
• Strategic Value:
  • Expands Salesforce's data management capabilities, especially in on-premise data integration.
  • Enhances the reach of MuleSoft and Data Cloud.
  • Expected to be accretive to margins 1 year after the acquisition closes.
• Risks:
  • Overlaps with MuleSoft and Data Cloud, increasing complexity.
  • Integration could take more than a year.
  • Margins will be hit in the first year due to integration and rationalization costs.

Agentforce and AI Development

• AI Revenue Growth:
  • Data Cloud and AI ARR reached $1B, with AI ARR at $100M.
  • AI is still in early stages and requires significant consulting expertise.
  • Pricing structure may evolve, and current cost per conversation is high.
• Competition:
  • Microsoft, ServiceNow, HubSpot, and SAP are all developing Agentic AI and Data Cloud solutions.
  • Microsoft has a head start with Copilots and better integration with Office 365.

Growth Trajectory

• Deceleration:
  • Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, and Marketing Cloud growth decelerated.
  • Platform and Other grew at 14%, helped by FX and Tableau revenue recognition changes.
• SMB Growth:
  • SMB and mid-market growth is mid-teens, but this segment has higher churn and lower margins.
• Headcount Increases:
  • Sales exec headcount is expected to increase by 13–14% this quarter and up to 22% by year-end.
  • Forward engineering staff is also increasing, which may impact margins.

Financial Outlook

• Long-Term Concerns:
  • Salesforce is seen as a mature business in a mature market.
  • Growth is expected to slow further, and margin improvement will be increasingly difficult.
  • The company is returning to large M&A, which may impact margins in the short term.
• Investment Thesis:
  • The stock is currently valued with over-exuberant growth expectations.
  • The firm maintains an Underperform rating, suggesting investors should wait for more realistic growth expectations.

Investment Implications

• Current Valuation:
  • The stock is not currently reflecting the mature nature of the business.
  • The price target of $255 is based on a more realistic assessment of future growth and margins.
• Macro Environment:
  • Despite macro concerns, Salesforce's performance was in line with expectations, indicating resilience.
• Future Outlook:
  • Continued focus on pricing increases and M&A to drive growth.
  • Agentic AI is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, but monetization strategies remain unclear.

Summary

Salesforce's 1Q26 results reflect a stable but not accelerating growth trajectory, with FX playing a significant role in the revenue beat. The company's strategic acquisition of Informatica is seen as a positive move to enhance its data cloud offerings, though it comes with integration challenges and margin pressures. The firm maintains an Underperform rating due to concerns over the sustainability of growth and the current overvaluation based on high expectations. The stock is expected to trade at a more reasonable valuation once growth and margin expectations align with the company's mature business profile.