2025-05-21-Bernstein-劳氏公司（LOW）_2025年第一季度第一季度表现好于预期_2025财年指引维持不变；关税风险依然存在_16页_551kb

Summary of Lowe's Cos Inc (LOW) Research Report

Key Findings from 1Q25 Results:

• Performance: Q1 net sales declined -1.7% year-over-year (vs. initial guidance of -2.0%), driven by positive Pro segment growth and online sales, offsetting unfavorable weather. Adj. EPS beat consensus by 4c to $2.92.
• Financials: Gross margin improved by 20bps to 33.4%, adj. EBIT margin decreased by 50bps to 11.9%. DIY segment saw deterioration (-MSD in Q1), while Pro segment remained strong.
• Import Exposure: ~40% imports, including ~20% from China and ~10% from Mexico, with management focused on mitigating tariff risks baked into the guidance.

FY25 Guidance:

• Outlook: Maintained guidance with total sales of $83.5B–$84.5B (adj. EPS of $12.15–$12.40), comp sales growth of 0–1% (vs. consensus 0.6%), and adj. operating margin of 12.3–12.4%. Company emphasizes managing EV and holiday assortments.
• Market Position: Seen as preferred over competitor Home Depot (HD) due to valuation gap narrowing; LOW trades near all-time high multiples, with potential for margin recovery through cost savings.

Valuation and Investment Implications:

• Rating and Target: "Outperform" rating with a price target of $266 (up from $258), based on a 19.5x NTM P/E multiple.
• Recommendation: Exploit potential rebound if market improves; LOW's DIY segment may show sharper recovery, similar to COVID trends. Downside risks include prolonged weak demand due to high mortgage rates and consumer spending constraints.
• Acquisition: Not modeled, but $1.325B deal for ADG (B2B flooring/cabinets installer) could be accretive to EPS in the first full year post-closing; low growth expected in depressed homebuilding sector.

Overall Outlook:

The report remains cautious on near-term demand but positive on LONG-term prospects, narrowing valuation gaps and capitalizing on recovery opportunities.