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U.S.-China Trade Relations in the Trump Era: Summary

Core Content

This podcast episode, Episode 73 of China in the World, features Claire Reade, a former U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for China and an expert in international trade law. The discussion centers on U.S.-China trade relations during the Obama administration and the potential direction for the Trump administration.

Main Points

1. Claire Reade's Background and Role at USTR

• Reade served as Chief Counsel for China Trade Enforcement at USTR from 2006 to 2010 and later as Assistant USTR for China from 2010 to 2014.
• She had a long-standing interest in China, rooted in her academic background and early experiences in mediation and trade law.
• Her work involved initiating and managing a number of significant WTO cases against China, including nine major ones, to enforce compliance with international trade rules.

2. Impact of WTO Cases Against China

• The U.S. sought to ensure China adhered to WTO rules, especially regarding export restraints and market access.
• China generally responded constructively, amending laws and practices to comply with WTO obligations.
• Settlements were preferred by China to avoid negative public perception, and the U.S. accepted them at full value (100 cents on the dollar).

3. Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) and Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT)

• The SED was established by Hank Paulson during the Bush administration to address strategic and economic issues with China.
• The JCCT was a more focused mechanism for resolving specific trade issues, often serving as a precursor to the SED.
• Both mechanisms were seen as complementary, providing a structured way to address trade issues and foster dialogue.

4. Challenges and Opportunities for the SED and JCCT

• The SED was criticized for lacking concrete outcomes, leading to frustration from both sides.
• There was a need for more effective and targeted dialogue, with clear communication channels to top Chinese leadership.
• The U.S. should avoid reducing the scope of these dialogues, as they provide predictability and a platform for broader discussions.

5. Recommendations for the Next Administration

• The U.S. should maintain and improve the SED and JCCT, rather than discarding them.
• These mechanisms should continue to be used to ensure regular and structured engagement with China.
• The U.S. should also consider establishing a regular meeting schedule between U.S. and Chinese presidents, similar to how China meets regularly with other countries like Russia, France, and Germany.

Key Information

• WTO Compliance: The U.S. used WTO cases to hold China accountable for its trade obligations, which had a constructive impact.
• Export Restraints: China's export restraints on natural resources were a key focus, affecting industries such as steel and aluminum.
• Market Access: Cases related to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and market monopolies were also significant.
• Dialogue Mechanisms: The SED and JCCT were both important but had overlapping functions and differing focuses.
• Leadership Communication: Clear communication with top Chinese decision-makers is crucial for the effectiveness of these dialogues.
• Predictability and Structure: Regular, structured meetings are essential for maintaining a stable and predictable trade relationship.

Conclusion

Claire Reade emphasizes the importance of maintaining the SED and JCCT as platforms for dialogue and cooperation between the U.S. and China. She advocates for a broader approach to discussions, ensuring that both sides can engage meaningfully on a wide range of issues. The next administration should build on these mechanisms, enhancing their effectiveness without abandoning them. The establishment of a regular meeting schedule between U.S. and Chinese presidents could also provide greater predictability and focus in bilateral trade relations.