卡内基国际和平基金会-China-India-Nuclear-Relations_7页_314kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST - Episode 57: China-India Nuclear Relations

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World Podcast explores the nuclear relations between China and India, focusing on civil nuclear cooperation, nuclear deterrence, missile defense, and the potential for strategic stability between the two countries. The discussion is led by Tong Zhao, an associate at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, and Chintamani Mahapatra, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and expert in U.S. foreign policy and international security.

Main Topics Covered

1. China-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation

• Prospects:

  • Civil nuclear cooperation between China and India is seen as mutually beneficial, especially given their growing energy demands and the need for clean energy.
  • Both countries have extensive nuclear R&D programs and could complement each other in energy production.
  • Such cooperation would be a confidence-building measure, helping to reduce mutual suspicion and enhance trust.

• Obstacles:

  • India's complex decision-making process due to its democratic system involves multiple stakeholders and lengthy debates.
  • In contrast, China's decision-making is more centralized and efficient.
  • Despite these challenges, once an agreement is reached, future cooperation is expected to be smooth.

2. India's Nuclear Deterrence Against China

• Current Status:

  • India does not intend to engage in a nuclear arms race with China.
  • India is developing a credible minimum nuclear deterrence to prevent any potential nuclear aggression from China.
  • The belief is that China would not engage in a nuclear exchange with India due to the potential domestic backlash.

• India's Criteria:

  • India considers its current nuclear capability sufficient to deter China.
  • The concept of "minimum deterrence" is dynamic and depends on the strategic environment and the nuclear capabilities of adversaries.
  • A country's nuclear arsenal is defined by the satisfaction of its security experts, not necessarily by the number of weapons.

3. India's Sea-Based Nuclear Capability

• Reasons for Development:

  • India is developing nuclear ballistic missile submarines (e.g., Arihant) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (e.g., K-15) to enhance its deterrence.
  • These capabilities provide a second-strike option, ensuring that India can retaliate even if its land-based systems are attacked.
  • India's reliance on sea trade and energy imports from the Persian Gulf makes a sea-based deterrent essential.

• Strategic Implications:

  • While India's nuclear arsenal is still relatively small compared to China's, its development is part of a broader effort to achieve a credible deterrence.
  • India is not seeking a naval arms race with China, but rather focusing on protecting its maritime interests from piracy and terrorism.

4. Strategic Stability Between China and India

• Current Dynamics:

  • Unlike the U.S.-China relationship, which has a shared understanding on nuclear stability, China and India lack such a framework.
  • There is a need for more dialogue and cooperation to build strategic stability and reduce the risk of nuclear confrontation.

• Potential Measures:

  • China and India could adopt confidence-building measures (CBMs) similar to those between India and Pakistan.
  • These could include agreements on not attacking each other's nuclear facilities and mutual notification of missile tests.
  • Such measures would help reassure both sides and promote a more stable nuclear relationship.

5. Missile Defense and Nuclear Stability

• India's Perception:

  • India is developing missile defense systems, but the impact on nuclear stability is uncertain.
  • Missile defense can be seen as an arms race and may undermine the nuclear balance by making adversaries feel less secure.

• Recommendations:

  • Mahapatra suggests that instead of investing in expensive missile defense systems, countries should focus on arms control negotiations.
  • Open multilateral dialogue on missile defense is preferable to bilateral discussions, as it can reduce the risk of escalation and promote cooperation.

Key Takeaways

• Civil nuclear cooperation between China and India is promising but faces challenges due to India's complex decision-making.
• India's nuclear deterrence is seen as credible and evolving, with a focus on minimum deterrence and second-strike capability.
• Sea-based nuclear weapons are a strategic priority for India to protect its maritime interests.
• Strategic stability between China and India is not yet established, but confidence-building measures could help bridge the gap.
• Missile defense systems may lead to an arms race rather than stability, and arms control is a more viable path forward.