卡内基国际和平基金会-US–China-Relations-Following-Trump-s-Inauguration-Part-II_5页_262kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST SUMMARY - EPISODE 76

Core Content

This episode of the Carnegie-Tsinghua China in the World podcast, hosted by Paul Haenle and featuring Dr. Chen Dingding, discusses the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations in the lead-up to Donald Trump's inauguration in January 2017. The conversation covers key geopolitical issues such as North Korea, the South China Sea, and the impact of China's 19th Party Congress on bilateral relations.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. U.S.-China Relations and North Korea

• Dr. Chen Dingding acknowledges that China has imposed new sanctions on North Korea, which is a positive step.
• He notes that while China could do more, excessive sanctions might lead to the collapse of the North Korean regime, which is undesirable for all parties involved.
• Misconceptions about China's ability to influence North Korea's nuclear ambitions are addressed. Dr. Chen argues that no country can easily persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, as the regime sees it as a means of survival.
• He emphasizes that nuclear North Korea is a threat, but non-nuclear North Korea is not, and that the U.S. and its allies should focus on multilateral dialogue rather than unilateral pressure.

2. South China Sea Tensions

• Dr. Chen suggests that the recent incident involving the U.S. unmanned underwater vehicle is likely a random event, not a direct response to Trump's comments on the One China Policy.
• He believes that the Trump administration will demonstrate strength in the South China Sea, but it is not a top priority for the new administration.
• Reclamation activities by China are expected to slow down as they focus on consolidation rather than further provocation.
• The announcement of an air defense identification zone is considered unlikely unless there is a significant escalation in regional tensions.

3. Impact of China's 19th Party Congress

• The 19th Party Congress in the fall of 2017 is highlighted as a major event in China's political calendar.
• Dr. Chen notes that this event is good news for U.S.-China relations as it aims to maintain stability and avoid chaos in China.
• From China's perspective, avoiding conflict with the U.S. is a priority, and they are unlikely to provoke the U.S. unless they feel threatened.

4. China's Leverage Over the U.S.

• Dr. Chen outlines three key areas where China can exert influence over the U.S.:
  • Economic leverage: China's purchases of Boeing aircraft are a significant economic tool. If China shifts orders to Europe, it could cause job losses in the U.S. aerospace industry.
  • Agricultural exports: China's import of U.S. agricultural products, particularly from the Mid-West, is a vital interest for Trump. China could use this as leverage to pressure the U.S..
  • Multilateral cooperation: China can refuse to cooperate on issues like North Korea, Iran, and ISIS, depending on how critical these are to the U.S. administration.

Conclusion

Dr. Chen Dingding provides a balanced perspective on the future of U.S.-China relations, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy and multilateralism over unilateral pressure. He also highlights the strategic interests both sides have, and the potential for tensions to arise in the South China Sea, but not escalate into major confrontation. The episode concludes with a hopeful note, suggesting that 2017 may bring more stability in the relationship, and that Dr. Chen is open to future discussions.

Summary of Key Information

• North Korea: China has imposed sanctions but is cautious about pushing the regime to collapse.
• South China Sea: Recent events are random; China is likely to consolidate rather than provoke.
• 19th Party Congress: Expected to bring stability in China, reducing the likelihood of conflict with the U.S.
• China's leverage: Economic ties (Boeing, agriculture), and strategic cooperation/refusal on global issues.

Final Remarks

Dr. Chen Dingding is thanked for his insights and is invited to return for further discussions. The podcast ends with a reminder to visit the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center's website for more information.