世界银行-在冲突环境中探索灾难后的家庭恢复_2022年6月至11月尼日利亚洪水案例（英）-2025.6_43页_5mb

The report analyzes household recovery following disasters in conflict-affected areas, focusing on Nigeria as a case study. It employs the Unbreakable microsimulation model to examine how proximity to conflict influences recovery rates, consumption losses, and well-being. Key findings reveal that conflict significantly hinders recovery by exacerbating exposure bias, vulnerability bias, and limited access to resources, leading to longer recovery times and higher poverty impacts in regions like Borno. Results show that high-conflict areas experience reduced recovery rates (e.g., nearly 42 years compared to 18 years for baseline), with substantial disparities in consumption losses across regions. The study emphasizes the need for targeted policies to build resilience and address both disaster and conflict-related vulnerabilities, minimizing welfare losses.