世界银行-解开灾难与家庭暴力的联系_尼日利亚冲突和洪水对家庭经济的影响（英）-2025.7_23页_1mb

Summary: Unpacking the Disaster-FCV Nexus in Nigeria

Key Findings:
The study investigates the economic impacts of conflicts on Nigerian households, with a particular focus on flood-affected households. Using a balanced panel dataset from the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and geospatial conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), it employs difference-in-differences regressions. Results show that conflict-affected households experience a reduction in consumption expenditure of up to 16.7% compared to non-conflict households. This effect is significantly worse for households also exposed to floods, with reductions reaching up to 152% in some analyses. The analysis also indicates negative impacts on income but is constrained by data limitations, such as high attrition rates and inconsistent survey questionnaires. Additional limitations include sparse GPS data for longitudinal tracking and difficulties in accurately identifying flood-affected households, which limited sample sizes.

Methodology:
The research utilizes household survey data from 2012, 2015, and 2018, harmonized for consumption expenditure and income, alongside ACLED conflict data from 2011 to 2023. The difference-in-differences approach compares treatment (conflict-affected) and control groups to assess the impact over time, controlling for trends. Flood exposure was identified through both survey-based self-reports and satellite imagery, showing robustness across methods.

Policy Implications:
Integrated interventions are recommended to address the compounded vulnerabilities arising from conflicts and floods. Improving data collection to capture the intersection of conflicts and natural disasters is vital for effective disaster risk management (DRM) policy development. Enhancing collaboration at state and regional levels can strengthen resilience in conflict-prone and flood-prone areas.

Conclusion:
Conflicts have a detrimental effect on household economic outcomes in Nigeria, particularly when combined with flood exposure, leading to significant reductions in consumption and income. Despite data constraints, the findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated strategies to mitigate these impacts.