2022-12-14-布鲁金斯学会-无烟囱行业的就业创造潜力（IWOSS）_尼日利亚案例研究_105页_2mb

Employment Creation Potential of Industries Without Smokestacks in Nigeria

1. Country Context

• Nigeria has the largest labor force in Africa, but faces high unemployment, especially among youth and women.
• Economic growth since 2010 slowed, limiting job creation, while demographic trends increase labor force participation.
• Structural transformation shifted from agriculture to services, but manufacturing remains stagnant.

2. Industries Without Smokestacks (IWOSS)

• IWOSS sectors (e.g., financial services, ICT, trade) exhibit higher productivity and tradability compared to traditional industries.
• Key characteristics: tradable activities, high value-added per worker, technological change potential, and labor absorption capacity.

3. Comparative Sectoral Analysis

• IWOSS sectors (financial services, ICT, trade) showed higher recovery rates during the COVID-19 recession.
• These sectors contribute significantly to GDP and employment, particularly in terms of youth and female employment.
• Female employment share is higher in IWOSS (34%) than non-IWOSS sectors (32.2%) overall.

4. Employment Patterns

• Demographics: IWOSS sectors employ a higher proportion of young people (ages 15-34) (31.3%) compared to non-IWOSS (26.3%).
• Education: IWOSS requires more skilled labor, with 76.7% of IWOSS workers having secondary/post-secondary education vs. 57.4% in non-IWOSS.

5. Employment Growth and Future Projections

• Between 2018 and 2035, IWOSS is projected to create 56% of new jobs (27 million jobs), with 9 million jobs going to women.
• Female employment in IWOSS is expected to be 30.3% by 2035, up from 26.6% in 2018.

6. Constraints

• System-wide: Infrastructure deficits, lack of access to finance, significant skills gaps, and high corruption levels.
• Sector-specific:
  • ICT: Shortage of skilled tech professionals and unreliable power.
  • Trade: Poor logistics infrastructure and foreign exchange volatility.
  • Financial Services: High NPAs, corporate governance issues, and cybercrime.

7. Key Findings and Recommendations

• IWOSS sectors have significant potential for future job creation, particularly for youth and women.
• Strengthening infrastructure, improving education-industry collaboration, enhancing cybersecurity, and providing better access to finance are critical for growth.

[Summary produced by DeepSeek-R1] [Source: Report analysis by Brookings Institution, November 2022]