2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_Selected_Issues_Paper_51页_1mb

Peru: Selected Issues Paper Summary

Core Content

This document is a selected issues paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Peru, published on January 30, 2013. It provides an analysis of Peru's fiscal objectives, trade evolution, and banking sector spreads, with a focus on the country's fiscal strategy and its implications for long-term sustainability and growth.

Main Views and Key Information

A. Fiscal Objectives: Lower Debt or Higher Savings?

• Current Fiscal Framework: Peru has implemented a strong fiscal framework since the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law (FRTL) in 2001, leading to a significant reduction in public sector debt and some accumulation of public savings.
• Debt Levels: Public debt is currently at 19% of GDP (as of 2012), well below the 40% threshold often cited for developing and emerging economies. However, it is relatively high compared to other resource-rich countries like Chile (11%), Russia (12%), and Kazakhstan (10.5%).
• Fiscal Rules: The FRTL includes a deficit target of 1% of GDP, an expenditure growth cap (originally 2%, raised to 4% in 2008), and a fiscal stabilization fund (FEF). The FEF has not been used due to its cap and the requirement for a significant revenue shortfall.
• Pro-Cyclicality: Despite some countercyclical elements, the fiscal framework is not fully counter-cyclical, especially in response to commodity price shocks. It lacks ex-ante mechanisms to save during high commodity price cycles.
• Fiscal Sustainability: While debt levels are low, contingent liabilities (such as natural disasters and financial sector risks) pose potential threats to fiscal sustainability. Peru is highly dollarized, with about half of its debt in foreign currency.
• Fiscal Strategy Shift: Given the current fiscal position, there is a suggestion to shift the focus from debt reduction to asset accumulation, especially to build fiscal buffers and address future uncertainties.
• Benefits of Debt: Peru benefits from its presence in international capital markets, which helps in building a broader investor base and accessing financing. Further debt reduction could risk this access, especially during financial stress.

B. Trade Evolution and Policy Challenges

• Commodity Price Boom: Peru has benefited from elevated commodity prices, particularly in mining, which has supported fiscal performance and public savings.
• Trade Exposure to China: Trade with China has grown significantly, increasing Peru's trade exposure and economic interdependence.
• Trade Diversification: There is a need for greater trade diversification to reduce dependence on a single market and commodity.
• Economic Growth: Peru's economic growth has been robust, driven by strong commodity prices, capital inflows, and investment. The growth is expected to remain around potential levels (6%) with low inflation (around 2%).

C. Considerations to Define a Savings Target

• Resource Wealth Management: The challenge is to convert resource wealth into other assets for long-term development. This requires balancing current expenditure needs with savings and investment.
• Uncertainty and Volatility: Resource revenues are volatile, necessitating precautionary savings and the use of market-based instruments to hedge against price fluctuations.
• Savings Target Options:
  • Non-Resource Primary Balance (NRPB): This measures the difference between non-resource revenues and primary expenditure. It is used to anchor the savings target and maintain net wealth stability.
  • Modified Permanent Income Hypothesis (MPIH): This approach suggests that some front-loading of consumption can be welfare-enhancing, while higher investment can have lasting development impacts.
  • Fiscal Sustainability Framework: This framework incorporates inter-temporal budget constraints and the expected impact of investment on growth and non-resource revenues, allowing for a lower stabilization target for net wealth.

D. Banking Sector Spreads

• Background and Stylized Facts: The paper discusses the structure and performance of the Peruvian banking sector, focusing on interest rate spreads and financial statement analysis.
• Interest Rate Decomposition: Interest rate spreads are analyzed to understand the cost of capital and the efficiency of the financial system.
• Financial Statement Analysis: This includes the assessment of profitability, liquidity, and capital adequacy of the banking sector.
• Interest Rate Regressions: These are used to evaluate the factors influencing interest rate spreads in Peru.
• Conclusions: The analysis suggests that the banking sector's spreads are influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory environment, and market dynamics.

Conclusion

• The paper recommends a comprehensive strategy for public sector asset and liability management to enhance fiscal sustainability and counter-cyclicality.
• It emphasizes the importance of balancing savings and investment, considering both current and future economic needs.
• A shift towards a more asset-oriented fiscal strategy is proposed to address the challenges of resource volatility and contingent liabilities.
• The role of the fiscal stabilization fund and the potential use of a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) are discussed as mechanisms to manage public savings effectively.
• The document concludes that Peru's fiscal position is strong, but further reforms are needed to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.

Key Recommendations

• Implement a comprehensive public sector asset and liability management strategy.
• Shift focus from debt reduction to asset accumulation to build fiscal buffers.
• Enhance the countercyclical nature of fiscal policy.
• Consider the use of a Sovereign Wealth Fund with clear rules and integration into the broader fiscal framework.
• Address the infrastructure gap through a national investment strategy and increased private sector participation.
• Improve fiscal risk management by incorporating tools like Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis.