2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Qatar_Selected_Issues_51页_949kb

Summary of Qatar: Selected Issues

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper on Qatar, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff as part of the periodic consultation with Qatar. It was completed on December 19, 2012, and provides an analysis of Qatar's fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, focusing on three main areas:

1. Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF)
2. Market-Based Liquidity Management
3. Financial Deepening and Local Currency Debt Market Development

The paper highlights the importance of these frameworks in enhancing fiscal predictability, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and supporting long-term economic development in a resource-rich country like Qatar.

Main Points and Key Information

I. Medium-Term Budget Framework in Qatar

A. Introduction

• Qatar is introducing an MTBF to improve fiscal predictability and align spending with long-term development goals.
• The country's reliance on volatile hydrocarbon revenues and limited monetary policy independence under the exchange rate peg makes multi-year fiscal planning essential.
• The MTBF is a reform that requires enhancing credibility of the annual budget and macroeconomic forecasts, as well as strengthening the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) and line ministries.

B. Components of MTBF and Current Arrangements

• The current MTBF is in its infancy, with budget planning focused on a 3-year period, approved annually.
• Only 60% of ministries are currently involved in the MTBF, with 90% of total expenditures covered.
• The framework is not binding and is used internally without publication.
• A budget circular issued in 2012 outlines the timeline and instructions for ministries to prepare performance-based budgets.
• Ministries must provide performance indicators for their proposed spending and explain how it aligns with national development goals.

C. Objectives and Focus

• The MTBF aims to:
  • Manage spending volatility and shield it from hydrocarbon revenue uncertainty.
  • Achieve macro-fiscal stability.
  • Ensure efficient execution of large infrastructure projects.
• It is embedded in a long-term sustainability framework that reflects nonrenewable reserves and intergenerational choices.
• The annual budget cycle encourages procyclical spending, which the MTBF aims to counteract by basing decisions on a longer-term perspective.
• Current expenditure has increased significantly (130% between 2007 and 2011), while capital expenditure has risen in line with oil prices (50% increase).
• Without a detailed MTBF, ad-hoc spending increases have imposed budget rigidities.
• The MTBF is expected to help prioritize expenditures, improve project management, and alleviate domestic supply constraints.

D. Pre-requisites of MTBF in Qatar

• A credible annual budget is the first prerequisite, but Qatar's current oil price assumptions are too conservative, leading to deviations between actual outcomes and budget projections.
• A macro-fiscal unit has been established, but it is not yet functional.
• Medium-term macroeconomic forecasts are essential for the MTBF, but they are challenging in a resource-rich country due to uncertainty in oil prices and resource stocks.
• A fiscal risk management framework is needed to plan for contingencies and assess the long-term implications of current policies.
• A comprehensive top-down budget process is required to align annual budgets with medium-term objectives, but Qatar currently lacks this structure.
• Capacity building at ministries and government agencies is crucial to improve budget preparation and spending quality.

E. Going Forward: Fiscal Rules

• A fiscal rule can reinforce the MTBF by providing an anchor for medium-term fiscal planning.
• Two potential rules are discussed:
  • Non-Oil Primary Balance Rule (NOPB): Requires larger budget surpluses in 2011, but results show it has limited scope for countercyclical action.
  • Expenditure Rule (ER): Sets a ceiling on real expenditure growth equal to long-term GDP growth, allowing for temporary counter-cyclical deviations.
• The ER is sensitive to the initial fiscal balance, making calibration in Qatar, with its volatile fiscal position, challenging.
• The PIH (Permanent Income Hypothesis) method is used to estimate the sustainable level of spending, but it is highly sensitive to uncertain parameters like oil prices and population growth.

F. Conclusion

• The MTBF is a necessary reform for Qatar to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and efficient public investment.
• The success of the MTBF depends on credible annual budgets, accurate forecasts, and capacity building.
• The adoption of a fiscal rule is critical to reinforce the MTBF and manage fiscal policy in response to economic shocks.

Key Tables and Figures

Table I.1. Macroeconomic Volatility in Qatar, 1990-2010

• Qatar has higher volatility in real non-oil GDP and inflation compared to other GCC countries.
• In the 2000s, the volatility of non-oil GDP and inflation was particularly high.

Table I.2. Volatility of Government Spending, 1990-2010

• Qatar's correlation between government spending and oil prices is positive in the 2000s.
• The correlation between government spending and non-oil GDP is positive in the 2000s, indicating procyclical fiscal policy.

Figure I.1. Composition of Current Expenditure, 2007-12

• Current expenditure increased significantly, highlighting the need for MTBF to manage spending volatility.

Figure I.2. Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices, 2009-17

• Qatar's fiscal break-even oil prices are rising, suggesting a tightening gap with global oil prices.
• A downside scenario implies disruptive fiscal adjustments after 2015 if oil prices fall.

Figure I.3. Budgeted vs. Actual Outcomes, 2008-11

• Actual spending and revenue often exceed budgeted levels, indicating uncertainty in oil price assumptions.

Figure I.4. NOPB Rule Simulations, 1990-2011

• The NOPB rule would have required larger surpluses in 2011, but actual fiscal balance deteriorated beyond that.

Figure I.5. Expenditure Rule Simulations, 1990-2011

• The ER aims to keep the expenditure-to-GDP ratio constant over the cycle.
• It is sensitive to the initial fiscal balance, making it challenging to apply in Qatar.

Appendices and References

• Appendix: Lists potential fiscal rules, emphasizing flexibility and credibility.
• References: Include studies on fiscal rules, liquidity management, and financial deepening in the GCC region.

Box Highlights

• Box I.1: Discusses the country experience with MTFF/MTEFs in resource-producing countries.
• Box II.1: Explains liquidity management instruments.
• Box II.2: Illustrates the usefulness of liquidity forecasting.
• Box II.3: Reviews experiences of moving from floor to mid-rate corridor systems.
• Box III.1: Highlights Qatar Capital Markets Conference as a key event for local debt market development.

Final Notes

• The MTBF is a key reform to ensure fiscal sustainability and strategic spending.
• Fiscal rules are essential to guide spending and manage economic fluctuations.
• Capacity building and institutional reforms are necessary for the successful implementation of the MTBF.
• The volatility of oil prices and fiscal policy in Qatar is a major challenge, requiring flexible yet credible fiscal rules.