2017年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Fiji_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_92页_6mb

Summary of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the Republic of Fiji (2017)

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the Republic of Fiji (2017) provides an in-depth analysis of the country's economic performance, growth drivers, and key challenges in achieving poverty reduction and shared prosperity. It outlines three main pathways for development: Stronger Growth, Better Access to Services by All, and Building Resilience, while emphasizing the need for cross-cutting improvements in governance and institutional capacity.

Main Views

1. Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty Levels: Fiji is an upper-middle-income country with low extreme poverty rates (2.3% at $1.90/day, 15.1% at $3.10/day). The "basic needs" poverty rate is 34%, which aligns with the bottom 40% of the population.
• Inclusive Growth: Despite low GDP growth (2.8% annually since independence), the bottom 40% of the population experienced faster consumption growth than the average household, especially in rural and urban areas.
• Key Drivers of Poverty Reduction:
  • Decline in the importance of agriculture in the incomes of the bottom 40%.
  • Urbanization and diversification of income sources.
  • Expansion of low-skilled jobs in traditional services.
  • Increase in remittances, which protect the poor from domestic shocks.

2. Determinants of Economic Growth

• Growth Patterns: Fiji's growth has been slow and volatile, especially in earlier decades when agriculture dominated GDP.
• Growth Drivers:
  • Structural shifts from agriculture to services and manufacturing have not significantly boosted productivity.
  • Total factor productivity (TFP) growth has been stagnant.
• Constraints on Growth:
  • Low investment and weak exports.
  • Low-productivity jobs.
  • Political instability and frequent policy changes.
  • Labor market mismatch and high compliance costs.

3. Building on Opportunities and Strengths

• Government Vision: The 2014 election marked a turning point, leading to a more inclusive government with cross-ethnic support.
• Regional Hub Ambition: Fiji aims to become a regional hub in sectors like aviation, shipping, and ICT.
• Key Opportunities:
  • Tourism expansion (including long-stay facilities for retirees).
  • Migration-related services (e.g., caregiver programs).
  • Deep-sea mining and fisheries.
  • Leveraging the diaspora of skilled entrepreneurs.

Key Pathways for Development

Pathway I: Stronger Growth

• Why Is Investment Low?

  • Political instability and policy uncertainty are major constraints.
  • High compliance costs and frequent changes in regulations.
  • Low productivity of labor, especially affecting foreign direct investment (FDI).

• Why Are Exports Weak?

  • Exports are dominated by raw materials and food, with little diversification.
  • Trade costs are higher than in East Asian export leaders.
  • Fixed exchange rate and rising remittances are not significant causes of noncompetitiveness.

• Why Is Employment Low?

  • Skilled labor migration has increased.
  • High costs of hiring skilled workers have discouraged skill-intensive businesses.
  • Labor market mismatches and complex regulations raise compliance costs.

• Policies to Accelerate Growth:

  • Revamp the growth model to reduce red tape and improve competitiveness.
  • Improve policy analysis and monitoring to reduce uncertainty.
  • Invest in connective infrastructure to support trade.
  • Simplify labor regulations and improve incentives for private sector participation.

Pathway II: Better Access to Services by All

• Education:

  • Early education is widespread.
  • Secondary school dropout rates remain high, necessitating targeted interventions.
  • The "Matua" program helps dropouts return to education.

• Health:

  • Health outcomes are poor despite high access to services.
  • High costs relative to income and inadequate targeting of subsidies.
  • Need for better coordination with the private sector and monitoring of service delivery costs.

• Housing:

  • Urban housing shortages are severe.
  • Need for more resilient housing due to natural disasters.
  • High construction costs, outdated urban planning, and limited housing finance reach.

• Connective Infrastructure:

  • Uneven access to electricity and the Internet, especially in rural and remote areas.
  • Potential for private sector involvement in infrastructure development.

• Financial Inclusion:

  • Low access to financial services among the bottom 40%.
  • Gender disparities in financial access and usage.

• Gender Inequality:

  • Persistent gender disparities in education and economic opportunities.
  • Need for targeted policies to address gender-based violence and inequality.

• Policies to Improve Access:

  • Target spending on education and health to the bottom 40%.
  • Strengthen public-private partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure.
  • Improve housing affordability through standardized, prefabricated housing.
  • Expand financial inclusion and support for low-income households.

Pathway III: Building Resilience

• Climate Resilience:

  • High exposure to natural disasters (cyclones, floods, earthquakes).
  • Annual losses of ~2% of GDP and 20% every 50 years.
  • Need to review and strengthen sectoral policies in agriculture, mining, tourism, and fisheries.
  • Improve building codes and enforce disaster-resilient land use practices.

• Fiscal Resilience:

  • Limited fiscal space due to rising expenditure and frequent disasters.
  • Need for a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan.
  • Review tax exemptions and incentives to expand the tax base.
  • Consolidate fragmented subsidy programs to reduce expenditure rigidities.
  • Monitor and manage contingent liabilities and catastrophic risks.

• Protecting the Vulnerable:

  • Cash transfers and insurance mechanisms are needed to support the poor after disasters.
  • The Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF) was used for post-disaster recovery, but it only covers the formal sector.

• Policies to Build Resilience:

  • Strengthen urban and rural disaster preparedness and response.
  • Improve regulatory frameworks for public-private partnerships.
  • Enhance transparency and stakeholder participation in policy formulation.

Cross-Cutting Priority: Strengthening Institutional Capacity

• Public Sector Capacity:

  • Fiji has a disciplined and well-educated civil service.
  • The government has successfully implemented reforms with domestic and international expertise.
  • Governance indicators show relatively high political stability and low corruption.

• Governance Challenges:

  • Need to improve legal and regulatory frameworks to attract investment.
  • Better coordination among government agencies under a unified strategy.
  • Increase accountability and transparency in decision-making.
  • Engage businesses and civil society in policy formulation.

Policy Priorities

Key Information

• Population: 870,000, spread over 330 islands.
• GDP Rank: Second largest in the Pacific Islands after Papua New Guinea.
• Economic Sectors: Strong services and manufacturing sectors, with tourism contributing 38% of GDP.
• Natural Disasters: High frequency of cyclones and other disasters, causing significant annual losses.
• Political Instability: Three coups since independence, but recent elections showed more inclusive governance.
• Remittances: Play a key role in poverty reduction and income stabilization for the poor.
• Growth Target: Achieving 5% annual GDP growth to meet the 2035 goal of doubling per capita income.
• Fiscal Challenges: Eroded fiscal space due to high subsidies and public spending.
• Institutional Capacity: Strong civil service and ability to implement reforms, but needs improvement in coordination and transparency.

Conclusion

Fiji has made progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity despite low growth and high vulnerability to natural disasters. To sustain this progress and achieve higher growth, the country needs to address structural and institutional challenges, improve access to services, and build resilience against shocks. The report outlines clear policy priorities and emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and governance reform in achieving these goals.