2007年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh___Strategy_for_Sustained_Growth_Volume_2_Main_Report_58页_5mb

Summary of Bangladesh Strategy for Sustained Growth

Core Content

This document is a report by the World Bank on Bangladesh's economic growth, development progress, and policy recommendations for transitioning to a middle-income country (MIC) status. It outlines the country's achievements and challenges, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and policy innovations to sustain and accelerate growth.

Main Points

I. Introduction

• Bangladesh has made significant progress in economic development, moving from a poor and war-torn country to a position of relative stability and growth.
• The report focuses on the potential for Bangladesh to become a MIC within a decade, by 2016, or soon after.
• Key assets include improved economic fundamentals, successful implementation of reforms, a young labor force, and an established entrepreneurial culture.
• Despite governance weaknesses, Bangladesh has achieved impressive results through sound economic and social policies and social entrepreneurship.

II. Growth and Development: An Overview

• Economic Growth: Bangladesh's real per-capita GDP has more than doubled since 1975, with a 3.3% annual growth rate since 1990.
• Poverty Reduction: The poverty rate has declined from 70% in 1971 to 40% in 2005, largely due to income growth and social investments.
• Human Development: Life expectancy increased from 50 to 64 years, literacy more than doubled, and progress on gender parity in education was achieved.
• Urbanization: Dhaka and other urban centers have led growth, with urban populations growing three times faster than the national average.
• Challenges: Despite growth, challenges remain, including high adult illiteracy, child and maternal mortality, and low skill levels in the workforce.
• Growth Drivers: The acceleration in growth since 1990 was driven by physical and human capital accumulation and improved total factor productivity (TFP).

III. Gathering Speed: Scenario for Rapid Growth

• MIC Transition: Bangladesh could become a MIC by 2023 if it maintains a 3.5% per-capita GDP growth rate, or by 2016 with a 6% growth rate.
• Sectoral Shift: Transition from agriculture to industry and services is essential, driven by a competitive private manufacturing sector and a productive agriculture sector.
• Key Reforms Needed:
  • Energy Supply: Address energy supply constraints, as power outages significantly reduce productivity.
  • FDI Attraction: Improve Bangladesh's attractiveness to foreign direct investment (FDI), especially in manufacturing.
  • Export Competitiveness: Reduce anti-export bias by streamlining tariffs and improving trade facilitation.
  • Human Capital: Invest in tertiary education and improve labor skills.
  • Knowledge Economy: Encourage innovation and technology adoption.
  • Law and Order: Enhance security and reduce protection payments that harm productivity.

IV. Challenges and Policy Recommendations

• Structural Issues: Weak economic governance, underdeveloped infrastructure (ports, power, transportation), urban mismanagement, and skills shortages are major constraints.
• Agricultural Performance: Agricultural productivity remains low, with only half of the cultivated area using HYV rice and limited export diversification.
• Trade Reforms: Bangladesh needs a well-thought-out sequence of trade liberalization measures, including:
  • Unilateral trade liberalization with caution in pursuing regional and bilateral agreements.
  • A low and uniform tariff rate, following simplified import tax regimes.
  • Merger of para-tariffs with customs duties.
  • Elimination of end-user tariff exemptions and concessional tariffs.
  • Implementation of VAT on both domestic production and imports.
  • Efficient duty drawback and bonded warehouse schemes.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalent: US $1.00 = Tk 71.02 (April 5, 2006)
• Fiscal Year: July 1 - June 30
• Abbreviations:
  • ADP: Annual Development Plan
  • ASYCUDA: Automatic System for Customs Data
  • CPI: Consumer Price Index
  • FTA: Free Trade Agreement
  • TFP: Total Factor Productivity
  • RMG: Readymade Garment
  • DEDO: Duty Exemption and Drawback Office
  • LIC: Least Developed Country
  • MIC: Middle-Income Country
  • GDP: Gross Domestic Product
  • GNI: Gross National Income
  • LFS: Labor Force Survey
  • SD: Supplementary Duty
  • WTO: World Trade Organization
  • WB: World Bank
  • WBI: World Bank Institute

Conclusion

• To achieve sustained and rapid growth, Bangladesh must deepen its industrial base, enhance economic integration with global markets, and leverage its urban centers.
• Continued macroeconomic stability, improved trade policies, and a focus on human capital and infrastructure development are crucial.
• The report highlights the importance of structural reforms and policy innovations to overcome existing constraints and move toward MIC status.