20161121-大华银行-Regional_Morning_Notes_24页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a summary of market insights and company analyses for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on key financial metrics, performance updates, and investment recommendations for various markets and companies as of 21 November 2016.
Main Points by Region
China
- Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK):
- Downgraded to HOLD due to expected low single-digit growth in the hepatitis B segment in 2017.
- 3Q16 sales rose 7.2% yoy to HK$4.3b, while core net profit grew only 4.0% yoy.
- Gross margin increased to 80.0% in 3Q16 due to a shift towards high-margin oncology products.
- The company's hepatitis B segment is facing fierce competition from GSK's Tenofovir.
- Net profit is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 9.7% for 2016-18F.
- Target price is HK$5.64, with an upside of +6.2% from the entry price of HK$4.80.
Indonesia
- Strategy:
- Higher US GDP growth is expected to lead to higher Indonesia GDP growth.
- The JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) is expected to be volatile in the short term but will see growth in line with the US.
Malaysia
- Sector:
- Automobile sector is maintained at UNDERWEIGHT.
- Bermaz Auto is highlighted as a top pick with an attractive yield of 6% (based on 80% payout) and potential to increase to 7.5% (based on 100% payout).
- IOI Corporation (IOI MK):
- SELL recommendation maintained due to high historical valuation.
- 1QFY17 results were in line, but weaker earnings and production are expected in the second half.
Singapore
- Strategy:
- Corporate earnings are expected to recover in 2017 despite growth challenges.
- A defensive positioning is advised due to elevated volatility and uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
- 2017 year-end target for FSSTI (Frankfurt Stock Index) is set at 3,000.
Thailand
- Robinson Department Store (ROBINS TB):
- BUY recommendation maintained with a target price of Bt80.00.
- 3Q16 saw impressive margin expansion and higher rental income, boosting growth.
- Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB):
- BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt210.00.
- Another step forward in performance.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 18867.9 | (0.2) | 0.1 | 4.0 | 8.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2181.9 | (0.2) | 0.8 | 1.9 | 6.7 |
| FTSE 100 | 6775.8 | (0.3) | 0.7 | (3.5) | 8.5 |
| AS30 | 5427.5 | 0.3 | (0.4) | (1.6) | 1.6 |
| CSI 300 | 3417.5 | (0.6) | 0.0 | 2.7 | (8.4) |
| FSSTI | 2838.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | (1.5) |
| HSI | 22344.2 | 0.4 | (0.8) | (4.4) | 2.0 |
| JCI | 5170.1 | (0.4) | (1.2) | (4.4) | 12.6 |
| KLCI | 1623.8 | (0.2) | (0.6) | (2.8) | (4.1) |
| Nikkei 225 | 17967.4 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | (5.6) |
| SET | 1473.9 | 0.0 | (1.4) | (1.8) | 14.4 |
| TWSE | 9008.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | (3.2) | 8.0 |
| BDI | 1257 | 2.1 | 20.3 | 49.3 | 163.0 |
| CPO | 2918 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 32.6 |
| Brent Crude | 47 | 0.8 | 4.7 | (9.3) | 25.7 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air China | 753 HK | 5.05 | 7.00 | 38.6 |
| Ping An Insurance | 2318 HK | 40.45 | 47.00 | 16.2 |
| Ciputra Property | CTRP LJ | 715.00 | 960.00 | 34.3 |
| Indosat | ISAT LJ | 6,250.00 | 8,015.00 | 28.2 |
| Genting Bhd | GENT MK | 7.84 | 10.10 | 28.8 |
| Citiv Dev | CIT SP | 8.40 | 10.36 | 23.3 |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | 8.87 | 10.45 | 17.8 |
| Bangkok Dusit | BDMS TB | 21.90 | 31.20 | 42.5 |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | 464.00 | 645.00 | 39.0 |
Sell Recommendation
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartalega | HART MK | 4.88 | 3.33 | (31.8) |
Key Assumptions
| Country | GDP (% yoy) 2015 | GDP (% yoy) 2016F | GDP (% yoy) 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Euro Zone | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Japan | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
Key Financial Metrics (Sino Biopharmaceutical)
| Metric | 2014 | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover | 12,378 | 14,550 | 16,218 | 17,564 | 19,158 |
| EBITDA | 2,474 | 3,136 | 3,334 | 3,768 | 4,229 |
| Operating profit | 2,214 | 2,807 | 2,952 | 3,337 | 3,736 |
| Net profit | 1,513 | 1,779 | 1,950 | 2,143 | 2,346 |
| Adjusted net profit | 1,478 | 1,773 | 1,948 | 2,141 | 2,344 |
| EPS (diluted) | 19.9 | 23.9 | 26.3 | 28.9 | 31.6 |
| PE (x) | 26.6 | 22.2 | 20.2 | 18.4 | 16.8 |
| P/B (x) | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 16.6 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| Net margin (%) | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) | (21.8) | (10.4) | (17.6) | (35.8) | (37.1) |
| Interest cover (x) | 39.3 | 42.9 | 43.7 | 49.0 | |
| ROE (%) | 24.8 | 22.8 | 21.1 | 19.6 |
Key Financial Metrics (Lee & Man Paper)
| Metric | 2014 | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover | 17,099 | 17,616 | 19,217 | 21,362 | 22,585 |
| EBITDA | 2,443 | 3,753 | 4,385 | 5,011 | 5,367 |
| Operating profit | 2,443 | 2,882 | 3,448 | 4,016 | 4,357 |
| Net profit (rep./act.) | 1,888 | 2,321 | 2,800 | 3,280 | 3,570 |
| Net profit (adj.) | 1,923 | 2,308 | 2,800 | 3,280 | 3,570 |
| EPS (fen) | 40.3 | 49.8 | 61.4 | 72.0 | 78.4 |
| PE (x) | 14.9 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| P/B (x) | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 15.8 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
| Net margin (%) | 11.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 15.8 |
| Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) | 62.0 | 65.6 | 71.9 | 51.3 | 43.3 |
| Interest cover (x) | 11.4 | 18.6 | 22.4 | 27.6 | 30.8 |
| ROE (%) | 11.4 | 13.3 | 15.3 | 16.1 | 15.7 |
Company Updates
Lee & Man Paper (2314 HK)
- Product Price Hike: The company raised product prices by Rmb100/tonne (3%) effective 15 Nov 16 to offset increased input costs.
- Vietnam Plant: Started trial run, with commercial production expected in 1Q-2Q17, increasing effective containerboard capacity by 8%.
- Tissue Paper Expansion: Full operation of four tissue paper lines in Chongqing with a total capacity of 135,000 tonnes p.a., aiming to expand to 575,000 tonnes p.a. by end-17.
- Profit Margins: Expected to improve due to increased share of tissue paper in sales mix, which has higher margins.
Investment Recommendations
- BUY: Lee & Man Paper (2314 HK) with a target price of HK$7.20.
- HOLD: Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) with a target price of HK$5.64.
Analysts
-
Alex Jiang: +852 2236 6749, alex.jiang@uobkayhian.com.hk
-
Fu Jun Wei: +8621 54047225 ext 817, jwfu@uobkayhian.com
-
Ken Lee: +852 2236 6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
-
Sophie Yu: +852 2826 1392, sophie.yu@uobkayhian.com.hk
Summary of Key Insights
- Sino Biopharmaceutical: Downgraded to HOLD due to expected slowdown in key hepatitis B drug sales and slower-than-expected approval for Anlotinib. Target price is HK$5.64.
- Lee & Man Paper: Maintained BUY recommendation, with target price at HK$7.20. The company is expected to benefit from price hikes and expansion of tissue paper capacity.
- Market Outlook: Higher US GDP growth is anticipated to drive higher Indonesia GDP growth, with Singapore and Malaysia also showing growth potential.
- Volatility: Defensive positioning is recommended for Singapore and Hong Kong due to uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
- Valuation: The stock of Lee & Man Paper is undervalued relative to its historical mean, with potential for rerating due to product price hikes and possible coal price decline.
Stock Impact
- Runzhong Sales: Expected to decelerate in 2017 due to price erosion and competition from Tenofovir.
- Receivable Days: Increased by 20 days, indicating potential destocking in 2017.
- Net Profit Forecasts: Maintained for 2016-18F, with yoy growth of 21%, 17%, and 9% respectively.
- Dividend Yield: Expected to increase from 2.3% to 4.2% by 2018.
Conclusion
The document highlights the performance and outlook for several companies and markets, with a focus on growth, competition, and valuation. It provides a comprehensive analysis of key financial metrics and investment recommendations for the period from 2016 to 2018.
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