战略与国际研究中心-Mexico-State-Gubernatorial-Election_3页_264kb

HEMISPHERE FOCUS: Mexico State Gubernatorial Election Summary

Core Content

The July 3, 2011, gubernatorial election in Mexico State was seen as a critical trial run for the 2012 presidential election, given the state's large voter base of 10.5 million. The election was dominated by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), with its candidate Eruviel Ávila Villegas, backed by Enrique Peña Nieto, the frontrunner for the presidency.

Main Candidates

Eruviel Ávila Villegas (PRI)

• Affiliation: PRI, New Alliance Party (PANAL), and Green Ecological Party (PVEM) under the "United for You" coalition.
• Background: Born in 1969 in Ecatepec, a city adjacent to Mexico City. Holds a law degree and a Ph.D. from UNAM. Previously served as mayor of Ecatepec, state legislator, and federal deputy.
• Proposals: Promised to continue Peña Nieto's public works program, open 20 new universities, fight corruption through a Citizens' Council of Transparency and Accountability, and support alternative energy via tax breaks.

Luis Felipe Bravo Mena (PAN)

• Affiliation: National Action Party (PAN).
• Background: Born in 1952 in Guanajuato. Served as federal deputy, senator, and national PAN president. Former private secretary to President Felipe Calderón.
• Proposals: Advocated for drug testing for all candidates, proposed an office for corruption denunciations, and encouraged citizen participation in governance. Accused the PRI of exceeding campaign spending limits.

Alejandro Encinas Rodríguez (PRD)

• Affiliation: PRD, Workers' Party (PT), and Convergence Party under the "United We Can Do More" coalition.
• Background: Born in 1954 in Mexico City. Degree in economics from UNAM. Previously held roles in the Federal District government, including acting mayor.
• Proposals: Blamed high crime rates on Peña Nieto's administration, accused Ávila of ties to ex-mayor Jorge Hank Rhon, and called for investigations into PRI officials. Demonstrated transparency by releasing his asset list.

Polling Data

Polls consistently showed Ávila Villegas leading the race, with his support increasing over time:

• Methodology: Conducted by GCE, with 200 interviews, 95% confidence level, and ±2.3 margin of error.
• Trend: Ávila's lead widened, while Bravo Mena's support declined, and Encinas remained a strong second-place contender.

Election Analysis

• The PRI's strategy focused on leveraging its strong grassroots network, financial resources, and media presence.
• Ávila Villegas was chosen for his ability to connect with the public and his political experience, despite potential defections from PAN-Left alliances.
• The Atlacomulco Group, a key PRI power structure, supported Ávila, along with endorsements from PVEM and PANAL, which brought in younger voters and influential figures like Elba Esther Gordillo.
• The PAN-PRD alliance failed to materialize in Mexico State, weakening the opposition and making a PAN victory unlikely.
• The election outcome would have significant implications for the 2012 presidential race, as a PRI victory in Mexico State could boost Peña Nieto's chances and consolidate the party's power.

Conclusion

• A potential Ávila landslide would bolster the PRI's position in the 2012 presidential race.
• It could also enhance the party's influence in other states, such as Coahuila and Nayarit, where PRI candidates are also expected to win.
• The election would be a setback for the PAN and PRD, with the latter losing momentum due to internal divisions and lack of unity.

Key Implications

• Presidential Race: Ávila's victory would strengthen the PRI's campaign for Peña Nieto.
• Political Dynamics: The failure of the PAN-PRD alliance weakens the opposition.
• Public Perception: Ávila's campaign was supported by the high approval ratings of Peña Nieto and the PRI's organizational strength.
• Future Prospects: The PRI's success in Mexico State could influence the outcome of other gubernatorial races and the 2012 presidential election.