20131105-招商证券_香港_-Research_Highlights_14页_213kb

Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides a summary of research highlights and company comments from China Merchants Securities (HK) for the period of November 2013. It includes financial performance updates for Datang International, Sunac, and Intime, as well as forecasts for the October economic data and analysis of key sectors like oil and gas, property, and others. It also includes market indices and commodity prices for the same period.

Key Highlights

Datang International (991.HK)

• Third Quarter Performance: Datang's 2013 third quarter results exceeded market expectations, with improved profitability year by year.
• Earnings Composition: The power generation business contributed 104% of the company's earnings in the first three quarters of 2013.
• Non-Electric Projects: Non-electric projects reported losses due to the shutdown of coal-to-chemical devices and low coal prices, but the company expects improvement with coal demand recovery.
• Revisions: The company revised down its 2013-2015 EPS estimates by 7.5% / 9.5% / 9.6% to RMB0.37 / RMB0.38 / RMB0.47.
• Target Price: Based on a historical average P/E of 8x, the target price for 12 months was cut to HK$3.9, and the "Buy" rating is reiterated.
• Financial Metrics:
  • Revenue: RMB55.513 billion (down 2.22% YoY)
  • Net Profit: RMB3.674 billion (up 103.56% YoY)
  • EPS: RMB0.276 (81.2% of the consensus 2013E EPS)
  • Gross Margin: 27.7% (higher than HPI and Datang)
  • Net Margin: 10.1% (up 4.3% YoY)
  • ROE: 8.6% (up 4% YoY)
  • Liability-to-Asset Ratio: 77.87% (down from 79.17% at the end of 2012)
• Positive Outlook: The company expects to meet its annual power generation target due to increased winter heating demand. The Duolun project is expected to improve in Q4 2013 and 2014 with device repairs. Clean energy and coal-to-gas projects are expected to benefit from government subsidies and rising gas prices. Coal production is anticipated to improve with increased winter storage demand and coal price rebound.

Sunac (1918.HK)

• Sales Performance: Sunac China achieved a sales amount of RMB46.64 billion (including RMB38.86 billion in contracted sales and RMB7.78 billion in subscription) with a 70% YoY growth.
• October Sales: The company recorded a historically highest monthly subscription value of RMB10.85 billion and a contracted sales value of RMB6.25 billion in October 2013.
• Sales Forecast: The sales target for the year is expected to be RMB55 billion, up from the previous estimate of RMB50 billion.
• Rating: The company's "Buy" rating and target price of RMB6.66 are maintained.

Intime (1833.HK)

• Asset Disposal: Intime announced the disposal of 60% of its interest in Jiaxing Intime Xintiandi for RMB362,488,800, resulting in a RMB126 million profit before tax.
• Strategic Move: The disposal is part of the company's strategy to focus on core assets, and the profit is expected to be included in 2014 financial reports.
• Rating: The "Buy" rating and target price of HK$10.5 remain unchanged.

Economic Forecast for October 2013

• Growth: Economic growth is expected to slow gradually, with a CPI growth of 3.3% YoY and a PPI growth of -1.4% YoY.
• Industrial Production: October is a traditional high season for industrial production, but power generation and some high-frequency data declined slightly from September.
• Monetary Policy: The monetary policy maneuvering room is expected to be limited in 4Q due to rising inflation and cross-border capital inflows.
• Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): FAI growth in the first 10 months of 2013 is estimated at 20.1%, with manufacturing investment recovering and real estate investment slowing.
• Industrial Value Added: Estimated to grow by 10.0% YoY in October, but endogenous growth momentum is still lacking, leading to a gradual slowdown in industrial growth.

Market Indices and Commodity Prices

• HK Indices:

  • HSI: 23,189.62 (down 0.26%)
  • Finance: 32,378.36 (down 0.08%)
  • Properties: 30,140.73 (down 0.08%)
  • Utilities: 50,180.70 (up 0.24%)
  • Commerce & Industry: 13,525.62 (down 0.58%)
  • HSCEI: 10,686.06 (up 0.07%)
  • HSCCI: 4,520.39 (down 0.36%)
  • HKSPGEM: 465.45 (down 0.55%)

• World Indices:

  • FTSE 100: 6,763.62 (up 0.43%)
  • DAX 30: 9,037.23 (up 0.33%)
  • CAC 40: 4,288.59 (up 0.36%)
  • DJIA: 15,639.12 (up 0.15%)
  • S&P500: 1,767.93 (up 0.36%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 3,936.59 (up 0.37%)
  • Nikkei 225: 14,201.57 (down 0.88%)

• Commodity Prices:

  • Brent Oil: 105.43 (down 0.26%)
  • Gold: 1,314.4 (up 0.01%)
  • LME Aluminum: 1,843.0 (down 0.86%)
  • LME Copper: 7,245.0 (down 0.06%)
  • BDI: 1,552.0 (up 1.77%)
  • API Coal: 81.80 (down 0.37%)

Stock Ratings and Performance

Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

• 1880 (Belle): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$14.03, Upside Potential: 33%, EPS: RMB0.55 / RMB0.62 / RMB0.69, P/E: 15.1 / 13.4 / 12.2, 1-Month Performance: -9.9%, Analyst: Ivy Zhao

Metals & Mining

• 1818 (Zhaojin Mining): Rating: Neutral, Target Price: HK$6.00, Upside Potential: -3%, EPS: RMB0.43 / RMB0.38 / RMB0.34, P/E: 11.4 / 12.9 / 14.5, 1-Month Performance: -10.6%, Analyst: Li Xiang
• 358 (Jiangxi Copper): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$15.20, Upside Potential: 2%, EPS: RMB1.02 / RMB1.05 / RMB0.85, P/E: 11.6 / 11.3 / 13.9, 1-Month Performance: -3.5%, Analyst: Li Xiang
• 3948 (Chu Kong Pipe): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$2.26, Upside Potential: -19%, EPS: RMB0.11 / RMB0.40 / RMB0.55, P/E: 21.0 / 5.8 / 4.2, 1-Month Performance: 14.6%, Analyst: Michael Yuk

Oil & Gas

• 386 (Sinopec Corp): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$7.20, Upside Potential: 13%, EPS: RMB0.68 / RMB0.70 / RMB0.73, P/E: 7.4 / 7.2 / 6.9, 1-Month Performance: 3.1%, Analyst: Michael Yuk
• 3337 (Anton Oilfield): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$4.75, Upside Potential: 3%, EPS: RMB0.19 / RMB0.23 / RMB0.28, P/E: 19.3 / 15.9 / 13.1, 1-Month Performance: -10.9%, Analyst: Michael Yuk
• 3303 (Jutal Oil Ser): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$2.40, Upside Potential: 62%, EPS: RMB0.13 / RMB0.17 / RMB0.15, P/E: 9.0 / 6.9 / 7.8, 1-Month Performance: -7.5%, Analyst: Michael Yuk

Property

• 1918 (Sunac): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$6.66, Upside Potential: 27%, EPS: HKD1.07 / HKD1.26 / HKD1.41, P/E: 4.9 / 4.2 / 3.7, 1-Month Performance: 5.9%, Analyst: Duan Feiqin
• 688 (China Overseas): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$22.56, Upside Potential: -4%, EPS: HKD2.29 / HKD2.30 / HKD2.68, P/E: 10.3 / 10.2 / 8.8, 1-Month Performance: 2.0%, Analyst: Duan Feiqin
• 2777 (R&F Properties): Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$13.90, Upside Potential: 7%, EPS: HKD2.15 / HKD2.23 / HKD2.45, P/E: 6.0 / 5.8 / 5.3, 1-Month Performance: 6.7%, Analyst: Duan Feiqin

Conclusion

The research highlights focus on the performance of key companies and the outlook for the Chinese economy. Datang International and Sunac are both performing well with positive outlooks, while Intime is undergoing asset disposal. The economic forecast indicates a gradual slowdown in growth, with some sectors showing improvement. The document also provides detailed stock ratings and performance metrics for various sectors, including Textiles, Metals, Oil & Gas, and Property.