JPMorgan_Econ_FI-China_April_exports_moderated_on_easing_shipments_to_the_US...-115302653_13页_1mb

J.P. Morgan: April Trade Data and US-China Relations

Key Findings

• Export Moderation: China's April exports grew 8.1% YoY (revised from 12.7% in March) due to easing shipments, particularly to the US, driven by 100%+ tariffs. High-frequency data shows a 40-50% drop in container shipping to the US in mid-April.
• Import Growth: Imports rose 3.5% YoY, supported by increased shipments from commodity exporters and, unexpectedly, from the US despite punitive tariffs.
• Trade Surplus: Elevated at $96.2 billion, remaining solid despite export moderation.

Export and Import Details

• US Shipments: Exports to the US fell 21.0% YoY and 19.5% month-on-month; exports of low-end consumer goods (down 7.7% m/m sa) were hardest hit, while mechanical/ electrical exports only moderated slightly.
• Non-US Exports: Eased overall; shipments to EM Asia modest increased, trans-shipment concerns limited.
• Import Sources: Commodity exporters like Brazil (+11.4% m/m sa) and Australia (+25.1% m/m sa) drove growth, with US imports rising 5.5% m/m sa despite tariffs, possibly due to policy exemptions.

Trade Talks and Policy

• US-China Negotiations: Weekend meeting in Switzerland may reduce US tariffs to 50-60%, potentially boosting 2H growth forecasts but risking further slowdown if trans-shipments are curtailed.
• Domestic Policy: China has implemented modest monetary easing (e.g., 50bp RRR cut) in response, but growth remains constrained by tariffs. Trade data influences policy timing and fiscal stimulus debates.

Growth Implications

• Current tariffs (110%) are expected to keep growth weak, with adjustment likely next quarter. Trade talks could mitigate risks but also face scrutiny on origin rules.

This summary analyzes the J.P. Morgan report on April 2025 trade data and US-China tensions, highlighting key economic indicators and policy outlook.