那提西银行-全球-经济理论-如果劳动参与率上升会怎么样？-20180119-5页_521kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the economic implications of a rising participation rate in the euro zone and its comparison with the United States. It highlights how an increase in the participation rate affects growth, inflation, interest rates, and financial markets, particularly equity and corporate bond markets.

Main Points

Participation Rate Trends

• The participation rate in the United States has stabilised.
• In the euro zone, the participation rate is on a rising trend.
• The increase in the euro zone's participation rate is primarily driven by the rise in the participation rate of the over-55 age group, due to the increase in the retirement age.

Effects of a Rising Participation Rate

• Growth: A rising participation rate leads to faster growth in the labour force compared to the working-age population.
• Inflation: It results in a decrease in inflation as the increased labour supply puts downward pressure on wages.
• Interest Rates: Lower inflation typically leads to lower long-term interest rates.
• Financial Markets:
  • Equity Markets: The combination of higher growth and lower interest rates is positive for equity markets, as it supports faster earnings growth and higher equity valuations.
  • Credit Markets: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for companies, which is beneficial for corporate bonds.

Market Implications

• The ongoing rise in the euro zone's participation rate is viewed as a positive factor for European equities and the euro-zone credit market relative to the United States.
• Euro-zone equity valuations are currently lower compared to the United States, which could be corrected by the rising participation rate.
• Credit spreads in the euro zone are already tight, suggesting a favorable environment for credit markets.

Key Information

• Charts: The document references several charts (1–9) that illustrate participation rate trends, wage growth, inflation, and credit spreads.
• Disclaimer: The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only and is confidential. It does not constitute a financial analysis or a personalized investment recommendation.
• Regulatory Information: Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and regulated in various jurisdictions, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Dubai.
• Author's Views: The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the authors and may differ from one another.

Conclusion

The rising participation rate in the euro zone is seen as a positive economic development, contributing to increased growth and lower inflation and interest rates. These factors are beneficial for equity and corporate bond markets, potentially improving the relative performance of European markets compared to the United States.