那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-除非恢复劳动力技能，否则经济状况不会改善-20180404-5页_595kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the critical relationship between labour force skills and economic performance in OECD countries. It emphasizes that improvements in economic indicators such as employment, automation, industrial output, foreign trade, and productivity are closely tied to the level of skills within the workforce. The analysis is based on data from the OECD's PIAAC survey, which measures adult skills in various countries.

Main Views

• Labour force skills are a key determinant of economic performance: The document highlights that in OECD countries, there is a strong correlation between the skill level of the workforce and economic outcomes.
• Improving skills is essential for economic growth: Countries that fail to enhance their workforce's skills through education, apprenticeships, and vocational training are unlikely to see significant economic improvement.
• France's low skill scores hinder economic progress: The document points out that France has particularly weak labour force skills, which may be a major obstacle to improving its economic performance.
• Reforms should focus on education and training systems: To achieve economic improvement, reforms must prioritize education, apprenticeships, and vocational training, rather than solely focusing on taxation, public spending, or labour market rules.

Key Information

OECD Countries Analyzed

The following countries are analyzed in the document:

United States	Germany	Belgium	Switzerland
Canada	France	Austria	Japan
Sweden	Spain	Finland	Australia
United Kingdom	Italy	Portugal	New Zealand
Denmark	Netherlands	Greece	-

PIAAC Survey Results (2016)

The following table shows the overall PIAAC scores for OECD countries, with higher scores indicating better labour force skills:

Country	Score
Japan	292.8
Finland	286.4
Netherlands	283.6
Sweden	282.0
Norway	281.1
Australia	278.9
Flanders (Belgium)	278.9
Czech Republic	277.6
Denmark	277.4
Slovakia	276.9
Austria	276.2
New Zealand	275.9
Estonia	275.5
Germany	274.7
Canada	273.7
South Korea	273.0
United Kingdom	271.6
Poland	267.2
Ireland	266.3
United States	265.4
France	258.2
Slovenia	257.0
Israel	253.1
Greece	252.9
Italy	248.8
Spain	248.8
Turkey	223.0
Chile	213.1

Correlation with Economic Indicators

• Positive correlation with employment rate (Chart 1)
• Negative correlation with unemployment rate (Chart 2)
• Positive correlation with industrial automation (Chart 3A), which is linked to the size of industry and foreign trade (Charts 3B and 3C)
• Positive correlation with labour productivity gains (Chart 4), which is associated with potential growth

Conclusion

To improve economic performance, reforms should focus on education, apprenticeships, and vocational training. These measures are crucial for enhancing the labour force skills, which in turn drive employment, automation, industrial growth, foreign trade, and productivity. Countries like France, which have relatively low skill scores, must prioritize these reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth.

Disclaimer

• This document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and not for general distribution.
• It does not constitute a financial analysis or personalized investment recommendation.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The information is not verified or independently analyzed by Natixis.
• No liability is accepted for any reliance on the information contained in this document.