2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Impact_of_the_SFP_System_on_Italian_Farmland_Prices_and_Tenure_Contracts_44页_468kb

Summary of "The Impact of the SFP System on Italian Farmland Prices and Tenure Contracts"

Core Content

This paper explores the impact of the post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms on Italian farmland prices and land tenure contracts. The study focuses on three key policy instruments: regionalization, greening, and capping. The research is based on a survey of farmers in the Province of Bologna, Emilia Romagna, Italy, to assess their stated intentions regarding land use and ownership under different policy scenarios.

Main Objectives

• To estimate the potential effects of the CAP reform on land transaction propensity.
• To compare the effects of new policy instruments (regionalization, greening, capping) with the current CAP system (baseline scenario).
• To understand how these policy changes influence farmers' decisions on land ownership, rental, and use.

Key Policy Instruments in Post-2013 CAP Reform

1. Regionalization of Payments

• The direct payment system is being moved from a historical basis to a regional or national basis.
• In Italy, payments will be based on regional ceilings, divided by the number of entitlements.
• The basic payment can account for up to 70% of the total payment for a farm.
• Active farmers are defined as those with direct payments exceeding 5% of their non-agricultural income and engaging in minimum agricultural activity.

2. Greening Component

• Introduced as part of the CAP reform, it requires farmers to comply with ecological prescriptions.
• Prescriptions include:
  • Having at least three different crops on arable land over 3 hectares.
  • Maintaining existing permanent grassland.
  • Allocating 7% of the total farm area to ecological focused areas (e.g., fallow land, terraces, buffer strips).
• Organic farmers can receive greening payments without additional commitments.
• The greening component is funded at 30% of the national ceiling.

3. Capping

• A mechanism to limit the amount of direct payments to farmers receiving more than 150,000 euros.
• Intended to prevent excessive payments and ensure a fairer distribution of resources.

Case Study Area: Province of Bologna

• The Bologna Province has 10,790 farms covering 173,224.46 hectares of UAA, representing 46% of the total province area.
• Land use is highly differentiated by altitude:
  • 9% of arable land in mountain areas.
  • 26% in hill areas.
  • 64% in plain areas.
• 88% of land in the plain is used for arable crops.
• 53% of arable land is used for cereals, 27% for forage crops.
• 9% of UAA is used for orchards, and 14% for vineyards.
• The average farm size increased from 11.05 ha in 2000 to 16.05 ha in 2010.
• Land consolidation is more pronounced in the Bologna Province than in other parts of the region.
• 42% of UAA in Emilia Romagna is now rented.

Survey and Methodology

• The survey was conducted in early 2012, targeting 350 farm households out of 7,379 CAP beneficiaries in Bologna.
• The sample was stratified by altimetry (mountain, hill, plain) and by the amount of CAP payments received in 2011 (below or above the mean).
• The questionnaire was administered via telephone and focused on farmers' intentions to:
  • Expand or reduce land in property.
  • Expand or reduce land in rent.
  • Buy or sell land.
• Farmers were asked to state their intentions under the baseline scenario (current CAP) and under the post-2013 reform scenarios (regionalization, greening, capping).

Key Findings

• Farmers in the Bologna Province show varied intentions based on altimetry:
  • Expansion in property or rent is more common in the plain.
  • Reduction in property or rent is more frequent in the mountain and hill areas.
• The introduction of the greening and regionalization components may influence land purchase and rental intentions:
  • There is a potential increase in land purchase due to regionalization.
  • The greening component may also lead to an increase in land purchase, especially in areas where ecological measures are relevant.
• The capping mechanism is expected to have a limited impact on land use and rental decisions due to its relatively small scope.
• The land market in the Bologna Province remains robust, with land values increasing by 3.9% for arable land, 2.6% for tree crops, and 2.8% for vineyards between 2002 and 2011.
• The percentage of farmland rented has increased significantly in Emilia Romagna, reaching 42% of UAA by 2010.

Determinants of Land Ownership and Rent Decisions

• Farm size, location, and CAP payment levels are key factors influencing land use decisions.
• Farmers with higher CAP payments tend to have more land in property.
• Land in the plain is more likely to be rented or purchased due to its economic potential.
• The greening component encourages land use changes, particularly in ecological areas.
• Regionalization may lead to more uniform distribution of payments, influencing land investment behavior.

Conclusion

The study highlights the significant influence of CAP reforms on land markets in Italy, particularly in the Bologna Province. The shift from historical to regionalized payments and the introduction of the greening component are likely to affect farmers' land use and ownership decisions. These changes may lead to a more uniform distribution of payments, increased investment in land, and a shift in land use patterns. The paper contributes to understanding the relationship between agricultural policy and land market dynamics, providing insights into how policy instruments can shape farmer behavior and land tenure contracts.