2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Impact_of_the_Decarbonisation_of_the_Energy_System_on_Employment_in_Europe_90页_10mb

Summary of "Impact of the Decarbonisation of the Energy System on Employment in Europe"

Core Content

This report, part of the NEUJOBS project, examines the impact of the decarbonisation of the energy system on employment in Europe, focusing on the years 2020, 2030, and 2050. It uses employment factors—labour intensities of different energy technologies—to assess how changes in the energy mix, as outlined in the European Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050, will affect both the quantity and quality of jobs in the energy sector.

Main Objectives

• To evaluate the employment effects of the socio-ecological transition (SET) from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES) and other low-carbon technologies.
• To compare current and future employment structures, including the level of qualifications required.
• To identify regional differences and the potential role of exports and fiscal implications.

Key Findings

1. Current EU Energy Sector Employment

• The EU energy sector includes activities in the extraction and processing of primary fuels, as well as in the power sector.
• Employment levels and structures are analyzed, showing that the current sector is dominated by fossil fuel-based activities.
• Labour intensity varies across different energy technologies, with fossil fuels generally requiring more labour than RES.

2. Future Employment Trends

• Quantitative Impact: The energy sector is projected to create more jobs by 2050 compared to the current situation, particularly in the power sector.
• Qualitative Impact: The transition is expected to increase the demand for higher-level qualifications, especially in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies.
• Regional Variations: The case studies of Poland, Sweden, and Spain highlight different employment outcomes based on their current and future energy mixes.

3. Decarbonisation Scenarios

• The report uses the Reference scenario and two decarbonisation scenarios (High-RES and DST) to project future employment.
• Under these scenarios, the share of RES in the energy mix is expected to rise significantly, from around 10% in 2011 to 40-50% by 2050.
• Fossil fuels will still play a role but will decrease in share from over 75% in 2011 to around 40-50% by 2050.

4. Power Sector Transformation

• The power sector is a key enabler of decarbonisation, with a projected increase in electricity generation due to rising demand in transport and heating/cooling.
• The capacity/generation ratio is expected to increase from 2.2-2.4:1 in 2010 to 3-4:1 by 2050 due to the intermittent nature of RES like wind and solar PV.
• Flexibility in the electricity system, including better interconnection, demand-side management, and storage, will be essential to manage the variability of RES.

5. Labour Market Implications

• The transition to RES and low-carbon technologies will create new employment opportunities, especially in construction, installation, and manufacturing (CIM) and operation and maintenance (O&M).
• There will be a shift from low-skilled jobs in fossil fuel extraction and processing to higher-skilled jobs in the renewable energy sector.
• The report emphasizes that the socio-ecological transition is not only about energy but also about broader changes in social organisation and culture.

6. Policy and Methodology

• The methodology involves using employment factors derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and other data sources.
• The analysis is based on a comprehensive literature review, statistical data, and expert interviews.
• The results are validated through case studies at the member state level, providing insights into how different countries may experience the transition differently.

Key Information

• The EU aims to reduce GHG emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.
• The energy sector's transformation is expected to increase the number of jobs, but with a higher requirement for skilled workers.
• The High-RES scenario shows a significant increase in RES share, while the DST scenario emphasizes diversification of supply technologies.
• The report highlights the importance of retraining and education to support the transition to green jobs.
• The socio-ecological transition is a broader concept than just decarbonisation, involving changes in production, consumption, and social organisation.

Conclusion

The decarbonisation of the energy system in Europe is likely to lead to an increase in employment, especially in the power sector, with a shift towards higher-skilled jobs. While there may be job losses in fossil fuel industries, the overall trend is positive, with the potential for job creation in the renewable energy and low-carbon sectors. The report underscores the need for policy support, including retraining programs and investment in infrastructure, to ensure a smooth transition and maximise employment benefits.