20250707-国泰期货-Morning_Insight_July_7,_2025_10页_847kb

报告摘要

Synthetic Rubber: Short-term weakness persists due to limited butadiene arrivals supporting prices around ¥8,500/ton and a widened NR-BR spread, but medium-term fundamentals face pressure from high supply growth, potentially limiting upside.
Live Hogs: Short-term fundamentals are stable with prices fluctuating at high levels; long-term sentiment is recovering as authorities enforce policies to reduce breeding sows, though smallholder selling pressure remains limited.

Market in a bullish structure driven by improving economic expectations and global stability; focus on domestic and external factors like US-China trade tensions and upcoming economic data. Caution advised for directional speculative positions; spread trading opportunities may arise.

Government procurement: China implements restrictions on EU medical devices to address unfair competition and respond to reciprocal EU measures.
Hong Kong IPOs: Surge in applications in 2025, fueled by investor confidence and strong market performance, particularly in tech-related stocks.
Free Trade Zones: Support for further alignment with international rules and institutional innovation in areas like AI and technology finance to promote high-quality development.

Upcoming releases include CPI, PPI, industrial production, GDP, and PMI data in July, with expectations of continued economic improvement potentially leading to policy adjustments like IPO acceleration.

Please refer to the full report for detailed analysis and risks.

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