20180518-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_436kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the performance of key global and Chinese equity indices, along with insights into the Chinese retail and banking sectors. It also outlines the company and sector ratings, analyst certifications, and risk disclosures.

Key Index Performance (May 18, 2018)

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	-0.5	2.2	3.4	44.3	10.4	11.9	10.8
HSCEI	-1.3	2.4	4.9	26.6	10.4	8.1	7.3
MXCN	-0.3	3.5	5.2	56.4	15.6	13.3	11.5
SHSZ300	-0.7	2.6	-4.1	35.6	15.1	12.9	11.2
SHCOMP	-0.5	2.0	-4.6	39.8	13.6	12.4	10.9
SZCOMP	-0.5	1.0	-4.0	76.1	22.9	19.9	16.2
INDU	-0.2	-0.1	0.0	39.6	8.8	16.3	15.0
SPX	-0.1	0.4	1.7	45.5	9.9	17.2	15.6
CCMP	-0.2	1.2	6.9	82.3	15.1	22.3	19.3
UKX	0.7	6.4	1.3	164.2	5.6	14.4	13.6
NKY	0.2	3.3	0.6	62.0	13.4	16.6	14.6

Main Points

Retail Sector Analysis

April 2018 Retail Sales: Increased by 9.4% YoY, but slowed by 0.7pp MoM.
Online Retail Sales: Rose 32.4% YoY in the first four months of 2018, with physical goods online sales up 31.2% YoY.
E-commerce Penetration: Reached a new high of 16.4%, with continued growth expected.
Product Categories:
- Cosmetics: Strong growth of 15.1% YoY, remaining a key bright spot.
- Consumer Goods and Restaurants: Steady growth, with restaurants slightly outperforming.
- Other Categories: Moderately stable, with communication equipment showing good growth.
- Gold, Silver, and Jewelry: Slowed growth to 5.9% YoY.
Regional Growth:
- Urban: Up 9.2% YoY, slower growth compared to rural.
- Rural: Up 10.6% YoY, outperforming urban areas.
E-commerce Companies: Nanji E-commerce (002127 CH), Suning.com (002024 CH), and Haoxiangni (002582 CH) are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the growing e-commerce sector.

Banking Sector Analysis

Deposit Competition: Banks have been competing for deposits due to scarcity, leading to a surge in yield enhancement products.
Regulatory Impact:
- Third-party payment agencies and money market funds: Growth has been controlled due to regulations.
- On-balance-sheet deposits: Not restricted, making them more attractive.
Public WMPs: Expected to see a decline in yields, reducing their price advantages over on-balance-sheet deposits.
Risk Reduction: Regulations aim to reduce financial system risks, supporting on-balance-sheet business.
Deposit Growth: Limited overall deposit growth and unbalanced structures continue to fuel competition for deposits.

Expected Changes

Competition Shift: From price to quality and services.
Cost Focus: Competition may shift from high interest to high cost, increasing cost/income ratio.
Diversified Competition: With deposit growth slowing, competition will become more diversified, and regulations may only slow growth.
Low-Risk Banks: Banks willing to sacrifice size growth and maintain low risk preference may gain competitive advantage in future cycles.

Risk Factors

Retail: Weak consumption demand, slower-than-expected M&A progress, low operating efficiency, rising labor and rent costs.
Banking: Liquidity shocks, interest rate fluctuations, economic slowdown, asset quality deterioration, and stronger regulatory actions.

Ratings

Company Ratings

Rating	Description
Buy	Outperform benchmark by >15%
Accumulate	Outperform benchmark by 5%–15%
Hold	Relative performance between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Underperform benchmark by >5%

Sector Ratings

Rating	Description
Positive	Outperform benchmark by >10%
Neutral	Relative performance between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Underperform benchmark by >10%

Disclaimer

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates may have financial interests in the mentioned securities.
The report should not be used as a substitute for professional investment advice.

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