20180614-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_392kb_392kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the performance of various global and regional markets, along with insights into the impact of new policies on the A-share market, particularly regarding the listing of innovative companies. It also includes information on the easing of deposit deviation restrictions in the banking sector and detailed rating definitions.

Market Performance

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	-1.2	-2.6	2.7	42.5	10.7	12.0	10.9
HSCEI	-1.4	-4.1	2.8	24.4	10.3	8.1	7.3
MXCN	-1.1	0.0	6.5	57.5	15.6	13.4	11.6
SHSZ300	-1.0	-3.1	-6.0	34.8	15.3	12.7	11.0
SHCOMP	-1.0	-3.9	-7.8	39.8	13.6	12.0	10.6
SZCOMP	-1.6	-5.0	-8.8	75.6	22.9	19.0	15.4
INDU	-0.5	1.2	1.9	40.5	8.7	16.5	15.2
SPX	-0.4	1.7	3.8	46.2	10.0	17.4	15.9
CCMP	-0.1	3.8	11.5	82.2	15.3	23.2	20.1
UKX	0.0	-0.1	0.2	169.9	6.4	13.9	13.1
NKY	-0.6	-0.1	0.3	61.4	14.8	16.6	14.5

Key Insights on A-Share Market

Investment Strategy: CDR Policy

The CDR policy aims to increase the proportion of innovative companies in the A-share market, thereby improving the capital market structure.
This reform supports the real economy and aligns with supply-side structural reform goals.
The policy includes incremental issuance measures, no conversion between CDR and existing shares, and updated IPO regulations.
The new economy companies are expected to enhance market connectivity with global capital markets.

Impact of Innovative Listings

The listing of innovative companies will not significantly affect the liquidity of the A-share market due to controlled offering sizes and timing.
There will not be a major shift of funds from traditional blue-chip stocks to new economy stocks, as the latter's scale remains relatively small.
Valuations of innovative companies in the A-share market are expected to be higher than in other markets, due to dual valuation by domestic and overseas investors.

Risks

The offering size and progress of innovative company listings may not meet expectations.
The impact of new economy companies on the A-share market may not align with expectations.

Banking Sector Insights

Easing of Deposit Deviation Restrictions

A new notice was issued on June 8, 2018, to ease the deposit deviation target from 3% to 4% and reduce related penalties.
This change is intended to reduce the volatility caused by banks rushing to attract deposits at the end of the month.
The removal of the "forbidding the use of high interest to attract deposits" rule reflects a move towards marketization of interest rates.

Reserve Requirement Reduction

The easing of deposit deviation restrictions may lead to an increased need to reduce reserve requirements, likely in 3Q18 or early 4Q18.
The central bank may avoid frequent reductions and instead use MLFs to manage liquidity.

Risks

Increased liquidity changes and interest rate volatility.
Economic growth may fall short of expectations.
Policy enforcement may be stricter than anticipated.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Performance Range (vs. HSI)
Buy	>15%
Accumulate	>5% to ≤15%
Hold	-5% to 5%
Underperform	< -5%

Sector Rating	Performance Range (vs. HSI)
Positive	>10%
Neutral	-10% to 10%
Cautious	< -10%

Disclaimer

The report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) and is for informational purposes only.
It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or a recommendation for investment.
The information and opinions are current as of the date of the report and may change without notice.
The proprietary trading division may have different investment decisions from the research report.

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