2004年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Policy_and_WTO_Accession_for_Economic_Development___Application_to_Russia_and_the_CIS_Module_5_Patterns_of_Trade_and_Protection_17页_150kb

Summary of "Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Economic Development: Application to Russia and the CIS"

Core Content

This document explores the historical patterns of globalization, the process of trade liberalization, and the role of Russia and the CIS in global trade. It outlines how trade, capital, and migration flows have evolved over time and examines the sectoral and geographical distribution of Russia's trade in the context of these global trends.

Main Lessons

• Four Waves of Globalization:

  • 1870–World War I: Characterized by reduced transport costs and trade barriers, leading to increased trade in agricultural and raw materials.
  • World Wars Period: Protectionist measures and trade barriers increased, causing a decline in trade flows.
  • 1945–Early 1980s: Trade liberalization between developed countries, while North-South trade remained constrained.
  • 1980–Present: A significant shift towards trade liberalization, especially in manufacturing, with a growing share of services and a decline in agricultural trade barriers. However, the process has slowed in recent years.

• Trade Liberalization Trends:

  • Tariffs and non-tariff barriers have declined steadily over the past 20 years, but antidumping actions have increased.
  • Industrialized countries generally have lower tariffs than developing ones, and they impose higher tariffs on goods from developing countries compared to other industrialized countries.
  • Agricultural products face higher tariffs than industrial goods.

• Geographical Distribution of Trade:

  • Developed market economies account for the largest and growing share of global trade.
  • East Asian countries significantly increased their share of world trade during the 1990s, especially due to the rise of China and the "Asian Tigers."
  • Russia's share of world trade declined since the early 1990s, both in exports and imports, with non-CIS countries accounting for 83% of Russia's foreign trade by 2002.

• Russia's Trade Performance:

  • Russia's exports and imports declined relative to nominal GDP until 1998.
  • After the 1998 rouble devaluation and the rise in commodity prices, exports increased significantly relative to GDP, while imports rose slightly.
  • Exports as a share of GDP increased from 26.78% in 1997–1998 to 45% in 1999–2000.
  • Imports as a share of GDP also increased but not as sharply as exports.

• Sectoral Distribution of Russian Trade:

  • In 1990, machinery and metal products were the largest share of Russian exports.
  • By the end of the decade, oil became the most important export product.
  • Intermediate manufacturing products formed the largest share of Russian imports.

Key Information

• Trade Composition:

  • Exports: Dominated by fuel products (especially oil) and later by machinery and metals.
  • Imports: Mostly intermediate manufacturing goods, reflecting the need for industrial inputs.

• Trade Partners:

  • In the late 1980s, former Soviet republics and planned economies were Russia's major trading partners.
  • By 2002, non-CIS countries accounted for 83% of Russia's trade, indicating a shift in trade relationships.

• Trade Flows and Globalization:

  • The decline in trade barriers and the increase in trade liberalization have been key drivers of globalization.
  • FDI and migration flows have also increased, especially from developing to industrialized countries.
  • Despite these trends, globalization has slowed down in recent years, with a notable decline in FDI and trade volume.

• Challenges and Exclusions:

  • Not all developing countries have benefited from globalization due to persistent trade barriers and agglomeration effects.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa has been an exception, not fully participating in the global manufacturing and services boom.

Conclusion

The document highlights that Russia's role in global trade has diminished over the past few decades, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While Russia's exports and imports have fluctuated, the country has increasingly focused on oil exports and imported intermediate manufacturing products. The overall trend of globalization, marked by trade liberalization and the rise of manufacturing in developing countries, has not fully included Russia, which remains a major commodity exporter but faces challenges in integrating into the global trade system.