2018年-世界发展银行全球_Nepal_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___A_New_Approach_to_a_Federal_Nepal_42页_2mb

Summary of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Nepal

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Nepal outlines a new development approach for a federal Nepal, emphasizing the need for structural changes to accelerate poverty reduction, enhance shared prosperity, and build resilience against natural disasters and economic shocks. The report is based on extensive consultations with various stakeholders and draws on previous World Bank reports and working group findings.

Main Points

Nepal's Development Context

• Economic Profile: Nepal is a low-income country with rich natural resources, including high per capita water availability, forest cover, and hydropower potential. However, its economy is relatively closed, with India as its largest trading partner.
• Geographical and Social Diversity: Nepal has a diverse population, with over 123 mother-tongue languages and a predominantly agrarian economy where 67% of the workforce is employed in agriculture.
• Historical Development: Nepal has a history of feudal regimes and underinvestment in physical and human capital. It transitioned from a monarchy to a federal republic after a decade-long conflict, with a new constitution and 7 provinces established.

Recent Development and Progress

• Poverty Reduction: Nepal has achieved significant progress in poverty reduction, with the proportion of households living in poverty dropping from 46% in 1996 to 15% in 2011, according to the international extreme poverty line.
• Shared Prosperity: Despite persistent inequality of opportunity, Nepal has been a top performer in shared prosperity, with the bottom 40% experiencing faster consumption growth than the top 60%.
• Economic Growth: Growth rates have been low, averaging 4% annually, and driven by private consumption rather than investment. The service sector dominates GDP, but productivity remains stagnant.

Key Challenges

• Low Productivity and Informal Economy: Nepal's economy is heavily reliant on low-productivity agriculture and increasingly informal services. Productivity growth has been minimal, and the industrial base is small and declining.
• Persistent Inequality: Inequality of opportunity and access to public services along gender, spatial, and ethnic lines persists. For instance, only 8% of lawyers in Nepal are women, and Dalits are less than 1%.
• Vulnerability to Shocks: Welfare gains are vulnerable to natural disasters and health shocks, with the 2015 earthquake causing over $5.2 billion in damages. Remittances, which have been a key driver of poverty reduction, are also at risk due to declining migration and concentration in certain countries.

Six Areas for Action

1. Improving Political Institutions in a Federal Nepal

   • The transition to federalism offers a chance to reshape power dynamics if accompanied by real political inclusion and a shift in the balance of power.
   • Strengthening the rule of law and reducing clientelism are crucial for addressing fragility and ensuring equitable governance.

2. Creating More and Better Jobs for All Nepalese

   • Job creation is essential for economic growth and poverty reduction.
   • The labor force is predominantly in low-return sectors, and migration often leads to higher productivity and wages.
   • Addressing constraints to private investment is vital for creating better employment opportunities and enabling individuals to become more productive entrepreneurs.

3. Productive and Sustainable Livelihoods from Nepal's Land, Forests, and Water

   • Nepal's natural resources have significant potential, but they contribute little to GDP growth due to lack of investment.
   • The country's hydropower potential is estimated at 43,000 megawatts, but less than 2% is currently exploited.
   • Sustainable management of natural resources is necessary for long-term economic development and resilience.

4. Equitable Investments and Use of Human Capital

   • Government spending on health and education has been maintained during conflict and increased after 2006.
   • However, spending remains below that of peer countries, and private contributions are high but not sufficient for equitable access.
   • Policies that support human capital development, such as the system of Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs) and community-managed schools, have been effective.

5. Strengthening Resilience to Natural Disasters and Health Shocks

   • Nepal is highly exposed to natural disasters, including floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and is the 11th most earthquake-prone country.
   • Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of such events.
   • Health shocks also push many into poverty, and the country's vulnerability is heightened by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture and remittances.

6. Getting More from International Migration and Remittances

   • Migration and remittances have played a crucial role in Nepal's development, with remittances reaching 30% of GDP in 2015.
   • However, remittance growth has slowed, and the country's economic structure is not diversified enough to reduce vulnerability.
   • The focus should shift from remittance dependency to more sustainable economic growth.

Summary of Priorities

• Political Inclusion and Rule of Law: Strengthening political institutions and ensuring accountability is essential for long-term development.
• Private Sector Investment: Encouraging private investment in key sectors will help create more and better jobs.
• Natural Resource Utilization: Harnessing Nepal's natural resources requires both public and private investment.
• Human Capital Development: Equitable investment in health and education is critical for reducing inequality and improving outcomes.
• Resilience Building: Enhancing resilience to natural and health-related shocks is necessary to protect progress.
• Diversification of the Economy: Reducing reliance on remittances and creating a more diversified economy will help reduce vulnerability.

Key Information

• Remittances: Official remittances increased from 2% of GDP in 2001 to 30% in 2015, contributing significantly to poverty reduction.
• Migration: Male adult migration to India and Gulf countries is a common strategy, but it comes with social and economic costs.
• Fertility Rate: Nepal's fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.1 in 1991 to 2.6 in 2011, offering potential for a demographic dividend.
• FDI: Nepal has one of the lowest rates of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, which limits economic diversification and growth.
• Federalism: The shift to federalism represents a major structural change, but it requires effective implementation to ensure inclusive governance and development.

Conclusion

The SCD highlights the need for a more inclusive, productive, and resilient development model in Nepal. While the country has made impressive strides in poverty reduction, its economic growth remains slow, and inequality persists. A federal Nepal presents an opportunity to address these challenges through structural reforms, increased investment, and improved governance.