20251214-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

报告摘要

Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market for the week of December 14, 2025, covering supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and market strategies. It highlights key developments in the global and Chinese fuel oil markets, focusing on high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) prices, spreads, and futures data.

Main Points

Market Trends

The fuel oil market remains weak, with prices continuing a slight downward trend.
HSFO prices are supported by potential supply constraints from Russia, where exports have declined and floating warehouses have increased.
LSFO prices are influenced by the resumption of Brazilian refinery operations and the delayed restart of the residual oil hydrogenation unit at Al Zour refinery.

Valuation

FU (High-Sulfur Fuel Oil): 2400~2500
LU (Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil): 2900~3250

Market Strategy

Short-term Outlook: FU is weak, while LU remains strong.
Monthly Difference Structure: The FU/LU spread has returned to contango and is unlikely to reverse under current loose supply conditions.
Price Difference: The FU/LU price difference may continue to decline in the short term.

Key Risks

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Latin America.
China-US trade negotiations.

Supply Analysis

Refinery Utilization

Chinese Refineries (CDU): Data shows varying utilization rates across state-owned and independent refineries.
Global Refinery Maintenance: The maintenance of CDU, hydrocracker, FCC, and coker units is affecting supply dynamics, with particular emphasis on the delayed restart of the Al Zour refinery's residual oil hydrogenation unit.

Production and Supply

HSFO Production (China): Export volumes from the Middle East and Latin America have increased, while Singapore and Malaysia remain low.
LSFO Production (China): LSFO exports from Africa continue to flow into the Asia Pacific, but there are still supply gaps due to refinery maintenance.

Demand Analysis

Global Fuel Oil Demand

Bunker Fuel Sales (Singapore): Ship supply data indicates ongoing demand.
China's Fuel Oil Consumption: The apparent consumption of fuel oil in China is monitored, with a focus on port-level LSFO consumption.

Inventory Analysis

Singapore HSFO Inventory: Spot inventory is still accumulating, contributing to weak spot prices.
Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp: Fuel oil inventory levels are being tracked.
Fujairah: Inventory levels are also monitored for both HSFO and LSFO.

Price and Spread Analysis

Asian Market

Singapore HSFO FOB Price: Continued decline.
Singapore LSFO FOB Price: Also shows a downward trend.
HSFO/LSFO Price Spread (Singapore): The spread is contracting, indicating a narrowing gap between high-sulfur and low-sulfur prices.

European Market

NWE (North-West Europe) HSFO FOB Price: Shows a downward trend.
NWE LSFO FOB Price: Also declining.
Price Spread (NWE): The spread is narrowing, similar to the Asian market.

American Market

USGC (U.S. Gulf Coast) HSFO FOB Price: Declining trend.
New York Harbour LSFO Cargo Price: Also declining.

OTC Swap Market

Singapore HSFO Swap: Reflects market expectations and valuation.
NWE HSFO Swap: Shows similar trends to the spot market.
Term Structure: The calendar spread indicates market structure and future expectations.

Import and Export Analysis

Chinese Market

HSFO Import/Export: Weekly data shows fluctuating volumes.
LSFO Import/Export: Weekly data highlights the continued flow of LSFO from Africa to the Asia Pacific region.

Futures Market Analysis

China-Overseas Spread

Zhoushan - Singapore 380cst: Price difference continues to contract.
Zhoushan - Singapore 0.5%: Similar trend of narrowing price difference.

Domestic and Overseas Spot Market Spread

FUM - 380cst MOPS: Shows the price difference between Chinese and overseas markets.
LUM00 - 0.5% MOPS: Reflects the spread between Chinese and Singaporean markets.

Trading Volume and Open Interest

FU and LU Futures: Trading volume and open interest data are provided for both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts.

Disclaimer and Copyright

This report is intended for professional investors only and is not suitable for individual clients.
The views and information are for reference only and do not constitute investment recommendations.
The report is owned by GTJA Futures, and reproduction or distribution is prohibited without written permission.
The company does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and does not assume any responsibility for any losses incurred.

Analyst Certification

The analyst has the necessary qualifications and ensures the data used are from compliance channels.
The analysis is based on professional understanding and reflects the author's research views.
The report is independent, objective, and fair, with no influence from third parties.

Conclusion

The fuel oil market is experiencing a weak trend, with HSFO prices supported by supply constraints and LSFO prices affected by refinery maintenance and resumption. The spread between HSFO and LSFO is narrowing, and the futures market shows a continued contraction in the price difference. Investors are advised to be cautious and consider the risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations.

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